Football Betting

Tour de France Betting - Stage 7

Tour de France betting update:  Broke even on stage 6 - 2 wins & 2 losses (overall 4 -4, even).

Stage 7 is finally here.  Its an epic day that ends with a brutal climb up long, steep bitch.  Take it easy though, cause we really don't know who'll be ready to rock n roll in the high mountains.  These are the Pyrenees, which are steeper than the monsters in the Alps.  True climbers usually have a sizable advantage here.

I'm going to start off with Zubeldia -200 over Popovych.  Zubeldia has always been able to handle the steep climbs, but the tactics of his previous squad were terrible.  He's been riding great even in the flatter stages and I'm pretty sure he'll be leading the Astana guys up a majority of the final climb.  Popo is going good too, but he'll be used to drive the A-train early on. 

Gerdemann +100 over Vandevelde.  Gerdemann will do fine. I think Vandevelde's lack of prep due to injury will show up tomorrow when everyone opens the pain locker.

Sastre +235 over Evans.  Evans is more of a grinder, better suited for the Alps.  Sastre is ridiculous and gets better as the mountains get super-steep. Tomorrow will be his day.

Tour de France betting available at The Greek and 5dimes

Tour de France Betting - Stage 6

Tour de France betting update:  Broke even on stage 5, 2 wins & 2 losses

Stage 6 is another flat stage until the very end, where they finish on a nasty little hill.  Its not a big enough hill for the climbers to do any damage, but could spoil the sprinters chances.  In the head to head match-ups I going with some of the guys who have success in the one-day races.  Tour de France betting available at The Greek and 5dimes

I'm usually hesitant to bet anyone who's a heavy favorite in head-to-head matchups, but I'm going to play Cancellara -250 over Wegmann.  Cancellara has been very attentive and I heard say he's got lots of power in his legs during an interview today.  He's the strongest of the strongmen and he'll go for the win before relinquishing the overall lead in the mountains on Friday.

Jens Voigt +100 over Frank Schleck seems to make sense too.  Voigt is a smart, dangerous and versatile rider.  This will be one of his few chances to grab a win and Schleck will be more interested in marking Lance, Contador and the other overall contenders.

Cancellara +130 over Kirchen too, see above.  Fabian drops the hammer.

Roman Kreuziger -140 over Nibali.  Kreuziger is on form, he's even fired on a few sprints.   The finish of stage 6 is right up his alley. Nibali is a great rider but Kreuziger is poised to make some noise in the Tour and tomorrow should be a good day for him

Good Luck!

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Tom Brady and the Patriots Super Bowl Favorites? Not so fast.

The oddsmakers in Vegas and at BetUS have the New England Patriots emerging as front-runners for the Super Bowl. Of course, this is all contingent on how good you think Tom Brady is going to be. After getting his knee obliterated in Week 1 of the 2008 season, Brady is back and is reportedly 100% ready to go.

“He looks great in practice!”

That’s what you hear from the scouting reports. You know who else probably looks great in practice? Chris Simms, JaMarcus Russell and my freaking mother (she has a canon for an arm). The fact remains that Brady’s injury happened on his pivot knee, meaning the knee that will be twisting during the 500+ attempts he manages in the 2009 season…if he makes it that far.

I’m not questioning his talent at all, nor the coaching genius of Bill Belichik. Not even close. What I am questioning is his resiliency to a time-tested injury that has plagued athletes for centuries. The closest comparison we could possible have is Carson Palmer of the Cincinnati Bengals.

Palmer, who had a breakout year in 2005 had his knee dismantled in the playoffs by Kimo von Oelhoffen of the Pittsburgh Steelers. Since then, Palmer’s production has dropped lower and lower. He went from a 101.1 rating in 2005 followed by ratings of 93.9, 86.7 and 69.0. The last season was a rating from four games in 2008 since Carson also had a recurring elbow problem.

And while the numbers don’t necessarily lie, they don’t tell the whole truth. Carson Palmer is not the same player he was in 2005. Not even close. He was a brash, superhuman gun slinger, fearlessly towering in the pocket and burning the skies with laser passing. Now, he’s just not the same. Granted, some of that has to be contributed to the abysmal state of affairs in Cincinnati, but Palmer has lost something in his pass, and is certainly not the same field presence he was in 2005.

Tom Brady’s NFL Betting Odds

Win AFC: +350 (Conference favorite)

Win AFC East: -400 (Division favorite)

Win MVP: +400 (NFL favorite)

Win Super Bowl XLIV: +900 (NFL favorite)

What makes Brady different? He’s not even close to the athletic phenom that Carson Palmer is. Before his injury last year, he averaged 519 attempts a year. In perhaps the greatest year of any NFL quarterback, Brady shattered the touchdown record with 50 passing scores, 4,806 yards and a rating of 117.2. Randy Moss and Wes Welker will still be in Patriots’ uniforms next year, so the only thing that is going to change is Brady’s knee.

How will it effect his mental well-being? He hasn’t stood in the pocket with an actual opposing defense ready to bear down on him yet. Do you realize how many times the Patriots’ betting backers are going to vomit in their own mouths every time Brady is sacked? Is this a bad time to mention that the Patriots play the Bills, Jets, Falcons and Ravens in the first four weeks of the season? They also get the Titans in Week 6 and the Bucs in Week 7.

I don’t know about you guys, but I’m not banking on a reconstructed knee to win the Superbowl. Not when Pittsburgh is coming off a galvanizing year, and with so many question marks about Brady’s physical and mental strength in what will be his greatest test to date. If you’re willing to stomach the gut wrenching ride of Tom Brady 2.0, then be my guest. Just don’t come crying to me when your NFL betting bank, and Tom Brady, are left in the trenches without a leg to stand on.

Tour de France Betting - Stage 5

OK, I'm a big cycling nut.  Both 5dimes and The Greek are posting odds on the stage matchups, last year I turned a small profit thanks to a couple smart plays.  Here's the plan for stage 5...

Stage 5 at the Tour de France is nearly pancake flat and I don't see any way there will be another surprise split in the field like a couple days ago.  So, it's going to be a sprint finish.  Cavendish is the obvious winner, but he's expensive. I'm going to stay away from his matchups and look at a few others. 

Menchov +145 over Lance is a pure value bet.  Both guys will be happy to simply finish in the pack and neither will be fighting for position.  It's 50-50 on which guy crosses the line first, so Menchov's price is a bargain. 

Contador +210 over Evans, see above. It's the same deal, both guys will be in the pack and won't be fighting for position.

Yukiya Arashiro +100 over Roche.  The little Japanese dude has some jets.  You don't see many Japanese tour riders and I suspect he's here for a reason.  If he wins, I'm going to stay on him for a while.

Hushovd -155 over Boonen.  Thor looks like he's going good, just not good enough to take down Cav. Boonen has yet to get involved.  Until I see Boonen prove it, I'll consider him lucky to be here.

Good luck.

Mark Sanchez Ready to Roll for the Jets

The New York Jets and No. 5 overall pick Mark Sanchez have agreed to a five-year contract worth a guaranteed $28 million and up to $60 million in incentives. It’s the richest deal in Jets history.

The Jets traded three players and two draft picks to select Sanchez in April’s draft, despite the fact he started just 16 games at Southern California. The quarterback taken before Sanchez, Matthew Stafford, who was chosen first overall, had signed a six-year deal, with $41.7 million guaranteed. Those are the only two first-round picks to have signed thus far.

Sanchez all along insisted to his representatives that he wanted the negotiations to be taken care of quickly and not set up a potential holdout situation. After all, he wants to start this year, and the fact that he won’t be a holdout will only help that cause.

Typically, talks don’t really heat up with No. 1 picks until training camp nears, when both sides feel more pressure to reach an agreement. It is believed this is the earliest the Jets have signed their top pick. New York’s last two top picks, linebacker Vernon Gholston and cornerback Darrelle Revis, reported to training camp late while trying to negotiate deals.

“It sends the right message,” Sanchez said. “It’s not in my makeup to hold out like that. That would’ve just been terrible for me. This just eliminates that whole factor. I’ll be there Day 1, ready to go and compete. It’s going to be a good time and a competitive time.”

Reportedly Sanchez has been outperformed by Kellen Clemens in the team’s offseason workouts, which end Thursday. New coach Rex Ryan has said the quarterback competition will be fierce, but now Sanchez can receive the same amount of reps, and it’s clear the Jets want him to win the job.

The Jets, who finished 9-7 but missed the playoffs last year under Brett Favre, open the season Sept. 13 at Houston. New York is +600 on WagerWeb.com to win the AFC East this season.

Steve McNair & Sahel Kazemi

You hate to speculate on such a thing, but it seems rather obvious that the death of former NFL MVP Steve McNair was a murder-suicide.

That murder part has been made official, as authorities in Nashville revealed Sunday that McNair had been shot twice in the head and two more times in the chest. Yet police won’t officially rule it a murder-suicide — even though his 20-year-old girlfriend was dead at his feet from a single bullet.

McNair had been dating Sahel Kazemi for several months, and Nashville police spokesman Don Aaron said Sunday that a semiautomatic pistol was found under her body. She was shot in the head.

McNair, who was married with four sons, had a permit to carry a handgun in Tennessee, and he was arrested once before with a 9mm weapon although charges in the case were dropped. Police said they had not yet determined who owned the gun found at the scene.

Investigators weren’t looking for a suspect but were questioning friends of the couple as well as Kazemi’s ex-boyfriend. They were also waiting for results of drug and other laboratory tests before deciding whether McNair was killed in a lovers’ quarrel.

McNair apparently met the girl a year ago when she was a waitress at Dave & Buster’s, a place McNair frequented often with his family. There were no official signs that McNair was getting divorced, although his home in Nashville was on the market.

Meanwhile, current Titans QB Vince Young is pretty torn up over this shooting. Young met McNair when he was a teenager after being introduced by an uncle who played basketball at Alcorn State at the same time McNair played football at the school. McNair and Young remained in touch over the years and had spoken on a regular basis up to McNair’s death. Young was drafted by the Titans in April 2006 but never got to play with McNair, who was traded to the Ravens after playing from 1995-2005 with the organization.

“I’m still in shock,” Young said.”I spent all afternoon and night thinking about my life on and off the field with ‘Pops.’ Since I was a teenager, he was like a father to me. I hear his advice in my head with everything I do. Life will be very difficult without him.”

Other than perhaps Randall Cunningham and Doug Williams, no black quarterback has affected the NFL more than McNair. But McNair will be remembered more for his toughness than his numbers. Only three times in his career did McNair throw 20 or more touchdown passes, and he went over the 3,000-yard mark in less than half the seasons of his 13-year NFL tenure. He missed only eight games due to injury in his career.

McNair also led the Titans on 19 drives in which the team tied the game or took the lead with a score either inside the final two minutes of regulation or in overtime. There were 21 occasions, including three playoff contests, he rallied the Titans to victory from a fourth-quarter deficit or tie. Of course, the one rally he couldn’t complete was the most famous – that loss to the Rams on the 1-yard-line in Super Bowl XXXIV.

NFL Receiving Prop Bets

The NFL betting season is just over a month away, with the start of the preseason on the horizon. However, you don’t have to wait to get some pigskin wagers in, with a ton of NFL futures already available.

Today’s NFL futures focus is on the “most receiving yards” prop. Bettors may think simply taking last year’s receiving leader is the way to go, but it isn’t that easy considering a different player has led the league in receiving for the last eight seasons.

Last year Andre Johnson led all receivers with 1,575 yards. That was 144 yards more than the next player in line, Larry Fitzgerald, and 155 yards more than Steve Smith. You would think that Johnson would be the favorite to lead the league again, but it is actually Fitzgerald and Smith who are on top of the NFL odds as co-favorites. Fitzgerald and Smith both currently clock in at +600, while Johnson and Reggie Wayne follow them both at +700. Wayne finished with only 1,145 receiving yards last season, but gets respect from the oddsmakers because he led the league in yards in 2007.

Despite Johnson and Fitzgerald finishing one-two in yards last season Smith may actually be the smart pick for bettors. Smith may have finished 155 yards back of Johnson last season, but he actually led the league in receiving yards per game with 101.5. Johnson, to compare, averaged 98.4 per game. The only reason Smith did not overtake Johnson was because he only played 14 games compared to Johnson’s 16 - remember, Smith was suspended for the first two games of the season last year. If Smith can maintain the best receiving average in the league again he should take the receiving title for the second time in his career; Smith led the league in receiving during the 2005 season.

The big question mark this year is Randy Moss. Last season Moss recorded only 1,008 yards with Matt Cassel throwing him the ball. Now, with Tom Brady back, Moss’ numbers should quickly bounce back to where they usually are. Will that be enough to get him the league lead in yards? It may not be, because when Brady and Moss were breaking records in 2007 he still finished second in the league behind Wayne. In his 11-year NFL career Moss has never led the league in receiving, but he has been in the Top 3 five times. That’s why he is a +1200 underdog on the NFL odds.

BCS Playoffs?

In a move that shocks absolutely no one, Bowl Championship Series presidents this week rejected the Mountain West Conference’s playoff plan.

The MWC proposed an eight-team playoff system that would allow greater access to the national championship game to teams outside the six most powerful leagues. The BCS presidential oversight committee rejected the concept during a teleconference on Wednesday.

“There was no overall support for the proposal, although some conferences were interested in considering certain elements of it in the future — particularly those related to revenue, access and governance of the BCS arrangement,” said University of Oregon president David Frohnmayer, the outgoing committee chairman.

The MWC is still angry that Utah went unbeaten last year and didn’t get a chance to play for the national title, while one-loss Florida and Oklahoma did. Then the Utes went out and stomped Alabama in the Sugar Bowl. Utah finished the season No. 2 in the Associated Press final poll and No. 4 in the  USA Today/Coaches poll. Utah coach Kyle Whittingham voted his team No. 1.

 

The Mountain West’s plan would have used the current BCS bowls — Orange, Sugar, Fiesta and Rose — as well as a fifth unnamed bowl. Ultimately the teams would be whittled down until a national champion was determined.

Of course, the BCS schools and Notre Dame had no use for this, because they are getting rich off the current system. The BCS and ESPN agreed to a four-year, $500 million deal in November that will keep the current system intact. Somewhat surprisingly, all of the other mid-major conferences opposed this plan as well.

The Mountain West could see another one of its teams go unbeaten this year and be left out, as Texas Christian has a very realistic chance of running the table. Bet on the Horned Frogs futures at WagerWeb.

And the MWC isn’t done. In May, conference commissioner Craig Thompson appeared before the Subcommittee on Commerce, Trade, and Consumer Protection. Thompson says he will discuss options with the MWC Board of Directors and decide the league’s next move.

“The Mountain West appreciates the thorough review that each conference gave our reform proposal,” Thompson said in a statement Thursday. “However, the MWC continues to believe that there are fundamental flaws in the BCS system that need to be addressed. We will take yesterday’s action under advisement and consider our next steps.”

Don’t hold your breath for anything substantial to happen this decade.

Pre-Season Heisman Odds

The college football season is quickly approaching and fans should have already begun to think about the players they feel have the best chance of winning the 2009-2010 Heisman Trophy.

The Heisman Trophy, which goes to the best performing college football player of the year, is often times won by either a running back or a quarterback. This upcoming football season bring three potential quarterback winners of the Heisman in Texas’s Colt McCoy, Florida’s Tim Tebow and Oklahoma’s Sam Bradford.

Let’s take a look at the Heisman Trophy Futures.

 Heisman Trophy Futures

1. Colt McCoy, Texas, +275 - - The Texas quarterback gets to play behind an offensive line with tons of experience. Not only that but he has been fantastic the past two years and no doubt is going into his best season. He can potentially improve off of the amazing 173.5 quarterback rating. Great offensive weapons, a BCS winning coach, and a super defense means that McCoy takes home the trophy.

2. Tim Tebow, Florida, +200 - - Tebow won the Heisman in 2007 and probably should have won it last year, but quarterback Sam Bradford got the award. Still, two Heismans in the last 3 years is good enough for Tebow and the Gators. Florida is a +175 favorite to win its second straight BCS Championship in 2009-2010. The only way it does that is if Tebow provides the magic. He’ll be playing behind an inexperienced offensive line, but that shouldn’t hurt his chances.

3. Sam Bradford, Oklahoma, +275 - - Bradford won the Heisman Trophy in 2008 and will be looking to do the same in 2009, but winning back to back Heismans is almost impossible to do. Not only that but Bradford’s offensive line won’t be nearly as dominating and Oklahoma was exposed in the BCS Championship last year. I like the Sooners and I like Bradford but at the odds, McCoy is the better wager.

4. Evan Royster, Penn State, +1200 - - One of two things will happen to the Penn State running back. One, because his offensive line is inexperienced, he will be absolutely pummeled early and often and won’t even be in the discussion for the Heisman by mid-season. Two, because his offensive line is inexperienced, Joe Pa and the rest of the Nittany Lions’ coaching staff will lean on him with regularity and go back to Big Ten pounding the ball and sending him into the flat and he’ll have a huge season. I’m betting that number two happens.

5. Jahvid Best, California, +1000 - - The Golden Bear running back carried the ball 20 times for a 9.3 average, 186 yards and scored 2 touchdowns in California’s 24 to 17 victory over the Miami Hurricanes in the Emerald Bowl last season. He plays in the Pac-10 where defenses are virtually non-existent and there’s no doubt that Cal knows their only chance of winning the Pac-10 is to lean heavily on him.

6. Terrelle Pryor, Ohio State, +800 - - Yes, he’s flashy, fast, and flat out good, but he plays for a traditional Big Ten team and will have to do his running in the cold. I say running because the jury is still out on Pryor as a passer. He’s got the guts to be a star but his offensive line is inexperienced and the Big Ten…well, the Big Ten just hasn’t produced big time playmakers since Braylon Edwards. He could get lost on this list.

Best Long Shot

Joe McKnight, USC, +3000 - - A great offensive line and an inexperienced quarterback means that the bigger, some say faster, Reggie Bush gets the ball more often in 2009. USC will want to keep their star happy and the running back by committee way that they do things in L.A. looks good but really didn’t produce the needed results in 2008. If Pete Carroll goes with one guy and one guy only in the backfield, it will be McKnight. At 30 to 1, a wager might be a good idea.