I really thought that the Washington Redskins had a chance, because of their run game, of beating the 17.5 points against the spread that they faced last Sunday versus the New England Patriots.
From my point-of-view, the Patriots were just a few possessions away from getting into a struggle and all a team needed to do was run that clock and keep Brady and company off the field. What happened? Well, Mike Vrabel, the Patriots’ underappreciated linebacker, had an unbelievable game. He caused three fumbles, caught a touchdown pass, and just pretty much dominated the Redskins’ offensive-line.
What the game came down to was the play of Redskins’ QB Jason Campbell versus the defensive schemes of Bill Belicheat. Belicheat is still an awfully good coach and his defensive schemes eventually destroyed whatever offensive plans the genius on the other sideline, Joe Gibbs, had in mind.
The Patriots ended up pasting the Redskins 52 to 7. Ouch.
The Indianapolis Colts didn’t have much more trouble versus the Carolina Panthers this past Sunday. The Colts were on the road and the overrated Panthers didn’t put up much of a fight. The Colts won the game handily, beating the Panthers 31 to 7. Now, some NFL experts may look at the score and figure that the Colts did what they were supposed to do while the Patriots did what great teams do. I’m inclined to think, after watching both teams play this past Sunday, that the Colts are probably the better team.
Now, don’t get me wrong here, I do believe that the Patriots are an unbelievable football team. But, there’s one difference between the two teams that I believe, in a sixty minute game, will determine the winner.
The difference to me is the presence of Joseph Addai. Unlike the Redskins, who have an inexperienced quarterback, the Colts have one Peyton Manning at the helm. Manning requires opposing defenses not to key on the running back. That means that you, as a defensive coordinator versus the Colts, cannot stack the box with eight men and take away Addai. If you attempt to take away the Colts’ run game, they kill you with the pass. If you attempt to take away the pass, they kill you with the run.
The Patriots, meanwhile, do not have much of a run game. What happens against the Colts defense without a run game? Well, a team that lacks a real run game ends up playing right into the hands of Indianapolis Colts’ Coach Tony Dungy’s defensive scheme, the Tampa Cover 2. The Cover 2 is designed to drop line-backers into coverage and dare the quarterback to find the open man. Its success is dependent on getting pressure on the quarterback.
Will the Colts get enough pressure on Tom Brady to force the unbeatable QB into a mistake or two? I believe they will. The Colts are at home in this one. They’ve played the tougher schedule so far this year. They are more prepared to handle the Patriots’ offense than any other team the Patriots’ have faced so far this year. Bob Sanders, the Colts tough run-stopper, is finally healthy.
Of course, the best reason to like the Colts is the betting line. The BetUS NFL line is Indianapolis Colts + 6 against the spread at home versus the New England Patriots. This is a no-brainer. Take the 6 and the Indianapolis Colts and think hard about putting something on that money-line. Peyton and co. will not let the Patriots win this one in their house.
by D.S. Williamson
Interested in writing a football betting column? email doug-at-zewkey-dot-com
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