Cleveland Browns vs Houston Texans Point Spread Free Pick

CLEVELAND -3, Total 50.5

The Cleveland Browns (4-6 SU, 6-4 ATS), who are still desperately trying to stay in the running for a playoff spot, will play host to the Houston Texans (3-7 SU, 4-6 ATS), who have essentially fallen out of the running, in NFL sports betting action that is set to get underway at 1 PM ET on Sunday at Cleveland Browns Stadium (natural turf).

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Sunday, November 23

NOTABLE STAT: Houston has given up 28.7 points per game (30th in NFL)

KEY NFL FOOTBALL BETTING TREND: Texans have played 11 of last 12 games over the total

Here are some NFL football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

• HOU has covered two of its last six games
• HOU has lost seven of its last ten games SU
• HOU has played 11 of its last 12 games OVER the total
• HOU has covered two of its last eight road games
• HOU has lost its last eight road games SU
• HOU has played its last seven road games OVER the total
• CLEV has covered 18 of its last 25 games
• CLEV has played four of its last six games OVER the total
• CLEV has covered nine of its last 12 home games
• CLEV has won eight of its last 12 home games SU
• CLEV has lost four of its last five home games SU

Brady Quinn was just 14 for 36 on Monday night, but he engineered a Cleveland win in his second start as a pro. And he hasn't thrown an interception so far. In this one he'll probably be able to get plenty of assistance from Jamal Lewis (658 yards) who should find some room navigating through Houston's defensive front, which has shown itself to be vulnerable against the run.

Braylon Edwards is an enigma, because his dropped passes keep piling up, but when he's able to hold onto them he's effective (16.5 yards per catch). And the Browns have done a pretty good job of protecting the passer; only nine sacks have been allowed, and Quinn has been dumped only one time. So Mario Williams, who's averaged more than a sack a game over the last calendar year, could be stymied in his advances. All this adds up to a rather inviting offensive scenario for Cleveland.

Sage Rosenfels, as we've chronicled on these pages before, can be productive; even spectacular at times. He's rather accurate (66%), but has been prone to interceptions (seven this year, in limited action). The Texans have started to do what they set out to do when the season started, which is develop a running game. Apparently NFL scouts didn't give Steve Slaton a good chance to be an every-down back, but the rookie from West Virginia has responded. His 156 yards against the Colts last week was a career high, and he's now averaging 5.1 yards a carry (701 yards total).

Houston has played 11 of its last 12 games over the total. And we just don't see any reason to buck that trend here. So it's OVER 50.5 points, in the BetUS NFL pro football betting odds.

JAY'S PLAY: OVER 50.5 ***

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)