Chicago -3
Total 40
It’s must-win Thursday night at Soldier Field for New Orleans and Chicago, as both teams need to win out and get a lot of help to reach the playoffs this season.
The Bears are 3-point favorites on BetOnline.
I won’t deal too much with the cold weather – that story is elsewhere on this site, but of course it will be cold, which should benefit Chicago against the warm-weather Saints.
But the key will be whether the Bears can stop the running game of the Saints. You might say “Huh?” to that, knowing that Drew Brees leads the NFL’s No. 1 passing offense and that Brees is barely off Dan Marino’s pace for the most passing yards in a season in NFL history. But hear me out.
With Reggie Bush back to full strength and Pierre Thomas now the
featured “running” back (Bush is still a glorified receiver most
times), New Orleans looked very good in beating Atlanta last week. The
Saints rushed for 184 yards, their best performance on the ground in
nearly two years. Thomas has rushed for 311 yards and four touchdowns
in his last four games, averaging 5.4 yards per carry. When the Saints
run the ball 30 or more times during coach Sean Payton’s tenure, they
are 14-0.
Chicago is a beast against the run and has been weak against the pass
on occasion this season, although the Bears have held opponents to
208.0 passing yards per game in the past three. Maybe Chicago should
let Brees throw for 400 yards. That means the ground game is not
working, and New Orleans is 0-2 this season when Brees surpasses 400.
As for the Bears, they will pound the ball with Louisiana native and rookie Matt Forte, who is second in the NFL this season with 1,476 yards from scrimmage (1,081 rushing and 395 receiving), behind only Minnesota’s Adrian Peterson. He is just the seventh NFL rookie to surpass 1,000 rushing yards and 50 receptions.
QB Kyle Orton will be asked to not make mistakes and complete a few third-down passes. Last week in the cold against the Jaguars, he was 20-of-34 with 219 yards, two touchdowns and an interception.
Whichever team runs the ball better should win tonight, especially with temps likely to be around 20 degrees and a wind chill at least 10 degrees lower.
New Orleans is just 1-5 on the road this year.
Football Betting Free Pick: Da Bears -3 run it down the Saints throat. Easy cover for Chicago
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