Tour de France Betting - Stage 5

OK, I'm a big cycling nut.  Both 5dimes and The Greek are posting odds on the stage matchups, last year I turned a small profit thanks to a couple smart plays.  Here's the plan for stage 5...

Stage 5 at the Tour de France is nearly pancake flat and I don't see any way there will be another surprise split in the field like a couple days ago.  So, it's going to be a sprint finish.  Cavendish is the obvious winner, but he's expensive. I'm going to stay away from his matchups and look at a few others. 

Menchov +145 over Lance is a pure value bet.  Both guys will be happy to simply finish in the pack and neither will be fighting for position.  It's 50-50 on which guy crosses the line first, so Menchov's price is a bargain. 

Contador +210 over Evans, see above. It's the same deal, both guys will be in the pack and won't be fighting for position.

Yukiya Arashiro +100 over Roche.  The little Japanese dude has some jets.  You don't see many Japanese tour riders and I suspect he's here for a reason.  If he wins, I'm going to stay on him for a while.

Hushovd -155 over Boonen.  Thor looks like he's going good, just not good enough to take down Cav. Boonen has yet to get involved.  Until I see Boonen prove it, I'll consider him lucky to be here.

Good luck.