NFL lines: NEW ORLEANS -13, Total 49
Here are some betting trends, based on NFL lines, as they relate to this matchup:
- DET has covered eight of its last 24 games
- DET has lost its last 17 games SU
- DET has played seven of its last nine games OVER the total
- DET has covered its last five road games
- DET has lost its last 12 road games SU
- DET has played its last five road games OVER the total
- NO is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven games
- NO has played 15 of its last 21 games OVER the total
- NO has won and covered four of its last five home games
- NO has played 11 of its last 13 home games OVER the total
Also...
- Eight of the last ten meetings have gone UNDER the total
- Four of the last five meetings in New Orleans have gone UNDER the total
The Lions have obviously gone through some very definitive changes in the new regime, which includes a new man roaming the sidelines in Jim Schwartz, who was formerly the defensive coordinator with the Tennessee Titans. There is certainly a "get tough" attitude on the defense which is now under the tutelage of both Schwartz and new coordinator Gunther Cunningham, who is about as old-school as you can get in this league.
There have been some key personnel changes, namely the installation of new cornerbacks Anthony Henry and Philip Buchanon, as well as linebackers Julian Peterson and Larry Foote. This was the worst defense in the NFL last year, giving up 517 points and intercepting four passes. There is no question Schwartz is looking at the 2008 revival of the Miami Dolphins for some inspiration as he starts his journey with this team, although the NFL betting lines at BetUS still have his team as a major longshot to win the NFC North (+1500).
One big difference of course is that the Dolphins had veteran Chad Pennington at quarterback, while the Lions will go with Matthew Stafford, who is making his first NFL start after completing 25 of 46 passes with three interceptions in the pre-season. Stafford "won" the quarterback job after Daunte Culpepper suffered an injury, though Culpepper is available.
Contrast that with Drew Brees, who was able to come up just short of Dan Marino's all-time record for passing yards in a season despite watching injuries take out a lot of his offensive support crew at one time or another. He's still not out of the woods, though the NFL lines at BetUS favor him to lead the league in passing yards (+225). Reggie Bush (otherwise known as Kim Kardashian's boyfriend) should be just fine, but Pierre Thomas has a sprained knee.
The Saints picked up Darren Sharper in the off-season to help out at safety, but they'll have rookie Malcolm Jenkins starting at one corner, and Will Smith and Charles Grant are planning to play, unless the NFL tells them they can't (both facing four-game suspensions). There are still lots of questions surrounding this New Orleans defense, and the NFL lines reflect that with the high total posted at BetUS.
Detroit's defense had better be stingier than last year's version, because New Orleans came to Ford Field and laid a 42-7 beating on them in the season's 15th game. Although I like Detroit to win some games as the season progresses, I am not altogether confident about Stafford's ability to trade points with Brees, who appears to be hitting the ground running after posting a 132.7 QB rating in the pre-season. At the same time, the Saints' attitude has been to play "pinball" with its opponents, especially at home, where they have gone "over" in eleven of their last 13 games.
With the NFL lines at BetUS having the Saints a 13-point favorite, we're going to move in another direction and go OVER the total of 49 as it is posted in the BetUS NFL pro football betting odds.
JAY'S PLAY: OVER 49 ***
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)
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