Football Betting

AFC Playoffs - Superbowl Contenders

If the playoffs started today, two things would be very clear. The Indianapolis Colts and the San Diego Chargers would be the two teams to beat in the AFC.

That’s if the playoffs started today. There’s a still a lot to get through and some very good games this week that could determine which teams will have success both straight up and wagering wise in this season’s playoffs. Right now all we can do is speculate as BetUS will be releasing Super Bowl Football odds in the very near future.

Let’s take a look at the AFC playoff picture and think about at which odds the teams might be worth a bet to win this season’s Super Bowl.

Worth a Super Bowl Bet?

1. Indianapolis Colts

Strengths: The Colts appear to be getting stronger. They dominated a Denver Broncos team 28 to 16 at home last Sunday and have nobody in their path to a 16 and 0 season. They play Jacksonville on the road, the New York Jets and Buffalo on the road. Will they be stopped? Highly doubtful. 16 and 0 is well within reach. Their biggest strength, of course, is Peyton Manning.

Weaknesses: Peyton Manning. Oh, wait, did I just write that? The greatest quarterback to ever live, yes, I really believe that, has thrown 10 interceptions in the last 6 games. That’s 10 out of the 14 picks he’s tossed this season. Peyton appears to be slowing down. That’s not good. Also, as terrific as they looked against Denver, they still allowed wide receiver Brandon Marshall to grab 21 catches for 200 yards and 2 TDs. That’s Kyle Orton and Brandon Marshall who lit them up, not Phillip Rivers and Antonio Gates.

Worth a wager? Definitely not. No football sportsbook in their right mind is going to give you higher than +250 or +300 on these guys to win the Super Bowl. They look great but pull back the layers and there are serious concerns regarding this team.

2. San Diego Chargers

Strength: Everything. This team is loaded. The Chargers have won 8 games in a row, QB Phillip Rivers is playing his eye-balls out, RB LaDanian Tomlinson is getting healthier and the defense is rock solid. During their 8 game winning streak, they’ve beaten Dallas, Denver and the New York Giants on the road and beat Philadelphia at home. They’re a solid team.

Weaknesses: None. Sure, a case can be made that Coach Norv Turner is a liability but his team has won 8 games in a row in the NFL and beaten some good teams on the way. The Chargers are also 6 and 2 ATS during that 8 game winning streak which means that they are taking care of business.

Worth a Super Bowl bet? Yes! Yes! Yes! They’re just as good as Indianapolis, if not better, and have the complete package. There are no weaknesses on this team right now. None. Take the odds on the Charges as soon as humanely possible.

3. Cincinnati Bengals

Strengths: The Bengals’ D is very solid although it didn’t look that way last Sunday when it gave up 30 points to Minnesota. Still, the Bengals’ defense should keep them in games. They also have a terrific running game with Cedric Benson and Carson Palmer, Ochocinco and the rest of the wide receivers are good enough to get the job done when called upon even though the Bengals would prefer to simply run the ball.

Weaknesses: They’re a good team, but not a great team. Do they have a real weakness? Nope, but they aren’t exceptional in any area. They remind me of the 2006 Seattle Seahawks or 2007 Chicago Bears, two teams that made the Super Bowl but just were okay and lost. That’s Cincinnati. They’re good but not great.

Worth a Super Bowl bet? At odds of +800 to win the AFC Championship that might be the better bet. The Bengals could upset San Diego or Indianapolis, but they’re not going to win it all. Unless there’s a monumental upset in the NFC, the Bengals don’t have a shot to win the Super Bowl.

4. New England Patriots

Strengths: Tom Brady and Wes Welker can beat any defense in the NFL. I’m tempted to put Randy Moss with them, but Moss needs to start producing again before I can do that. With Brady and Welker on offense, the Patriots can dominate.

Weaknesses: Bad coaching from Bill Belichick, a shoddy defense, no real running game to speak of, an inability to win on the road, lack of heart…you name it and the Patriots probably have it. This team just isn’t that great. They play in the AFC East, though, which is why they probably will make the playoffs.

Worth a Super Bowl bet? No. Did you hear me? No. They’re not good enough. Flat out. The NFL pre-season favorite to win the Super Bowl just isn’t good enough to even get there.

Best Long Shot

Denver Broncos - - Yes, they just got kicked in the mouth against the Indianapolis Colts but they caused Peyton to throw 3 interceptions and held the Colts to 220 yards passing and 92 yards rushing. The Broncos got down 14 to 0 in that game and had to start passing much earlier than they probably would have preferred.

If they had been able to get their running backs going, then the score might have been closer. Also, Coach Josh McDaniels has shown the ability to adjust when needed. That will be the key to their success in the playoffs…if they make it. Denver is +2000 in the sportsbook to win the AFC Championship. I think they’re worth a bet.

NFL Super Bowl Odds after Brady injury

This is how the top-rated teams in the NFL stack up AFTER the injury to Tom Brady:

BetUS NFL Odds
To Win Super Bowl

Dallas Cowboys +350

San Diego Chargers +700

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS +850

Indianapolis Colts +1000

Pittsburgh Steelers +1400

Jacksonville Jaguars +1400

Philadelphia Eagles +1400

New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady has a tear of his anterior cruciate ligament that will require surgery. Recovery time for an injury such as this one is usually anywhere from six to nine months.

The worst fears of New England Patriots fans have come true - Brady is out for the rest of the 2008 season. Are they out of the Super Bowl picture completely? Maybe. But whichever way it comes down, it will obviously have an effect on the way this team is graded by the oddsmaker, and bet on by the NFL gambling public.

My guess is that those making the lines will anticipate the public betting against the Pats. That's already started, as the Jets, who are measurably inferior in many departments, are a 2.5-point favorite as of Monday. The average bettor tends to overreact to injuries and focus on stars. It may not seem to matter to them that an offensive guard or tackle is out of action, but a star quarterback or running back is perceived to have a much bigger impact. In reality, the opposite is often true.

Of course, let's stipulate that Brady is not your ordinary NFL quarterback. His absence constitutes a huge loss that has its ripple effect through the entire team, both on the field and in terms of intangibles. And is backup, Matt Cassel, has not started a game since high school. Bill Belichick and the front office did not devote enough attention or resources to addressing their quarterback depth during the off-season or in training camp, which is why they're scrambling around to work out people like Chris Simms and Tim Rattay.

My own first reaction is that the Patriots, while still a playoff-level team, have much less to differentiate themselves from the likes of Indianapolis, San Diego and Jacksonville, for example, three teams who ironically all lost on Sunday but who will be in the hunt for playoff spots when all is said and done. But New England will be in that hunt too.

Most of the smart bettors will realize that players at the skill positions are often more easily replaced than those on the offensive or defensive lines. Brady's loss will be felt the most when it comes to his leadership and decision-making, as well as his ability to find second and third receivers and his long-distance hookups with Randy Moss. Opponents will probably not have to defend as much of the field in his absence.

But this team will change its offensive approach with Cassel in the starting lineup. I don't want to start singing the praises of Cassel, but he has spent four years in the offensive system in New England, so he is very familiar with Belichick's philosophy and the Pats' personnel. And that personnel is flexible, in the sense that the Pats have the ability to both run and pass the football. The Patriots have depth in the backfield; Lawrence Maroney has the capability to be a first-rate runner, and indeed was a prominent figure in last year's playoffs. Sammy Morris is also more than capable, and Lamont Jordan was added to this combination. I would expect that when it comes to capitalizing on strengths and minimizing weaknesses, this will become more of a running football team, which will ultimately account for lower-scoring games and lower margins.

But remember that this team went 16-0 during the regular season, so there are a lot of component parts that function at a high level. The Patriots have an offensive line with three Pro Bowlers. They play defense. They have a pair of wide receivers that compare with any in the league (Moss, Wes Welker). They will win games, and the people who understand that can possibly find themselves on the positive end of some winning situations.

Of course, look for defenses to test that. Double-teaming Moss was a strategy that managed to slow down the New England offense a bit in the second half of last season. I wonder whether it wouldn't be a better move for them to now put the double coverage on somebody like Welker, the shorter-range receiver, in order to make Cassel hold the ball longer, and to stack the box in order to force Cassel to throw the ball long. Can he play pitch-and-catch with Moss the way Brady did?

Probably not. But keep in mind that Cassel is a player the Pats were legitimately worried about losing to another team, because they felt he could possibly start for several of them. He may not be at the helm of a juggernaut, but Cassel likely can be a good "caretaker" for this offense, which will take on a different face. Yes, it would surprise me if the Patriots romped all the way to the Super Bowl title. But I would be shocked if this team lost more than six games. And they'll grab more than their share of covers along the way.

Current Odds to win the 2009 Super Bowl XLIII

NFL Futures Odds- I will start to look forward to the 2008 NFL Season with some previews and insight into which teams look like value picks and who is being over-rated.  Got an opinion? Post it!