2010 Regular Season Betting Preview

2010 Regular Season Betting Preview

Everybody in the NFL is undefeated right now. The Cleveland Browns are tied in the standings with the New Orleans Saints. This won’t last, of course. There are only so many teams equipped with the right talent and personnel to make a serious run for the Super Bowl. We looked at the top favorites in last week’s 2010 NFL betting preview; this week, we’ll look at two more strong candidates, as well as three teams on the fringe who could make the leap this season.

The Baltimore Ravens (9-7 SU, 8-7-1 ATS) certainly consider themselves a viable Super Bowl team. So does the betting market. Baltimore is 11-1 to win its first championship in 10 years, and a –125 chalk to go OVER 10 wins during the regular season. The Ravens were the most efficient team in the NFL last year, according to Football Outsiders, but they managed to lose four games by a field goal or less. Some of those games should go the other way this year. Baltimore is founded on defense and running, giving third-year quarterback Joe Flacco (21 TDs, 12 INTs in 2009) every opportunity to continue along his developmental curve.

We’ve got another star QB on the rise in Green Bay, where Aaron Rodgers (30 TDs, seven INTs) is also entering his third year starting for the Packers (11-5 SU, 11-4-1 ATS). Actually, there’s not much more Rodgers can do to improve – he’s already performing at an elite level. But Green Bay can still do better. A healthy offensive line is a good start – Rodgers was sacked 50 times last year, most in the NFL. And the special teams finished dead last in efficiency in 2009. Improvement in those areas should help lift the Packers above their total of 9.5 wins (–190 OVER) and keep them in the Super Bowl betting conversation at 10-1.

The third-year QB parade continues with Matt Ryan (22 TDs, 14 INTs) and the Atlanta Falcons (9-7 SU, 11-5 ATS). As good as Ryan has been as a pro, the Falcons have been lacking elsewhere on the field – don’t forget, this team is only three years removed from the Bobby Petrino fiasco. Putting a strong and consistent defense together has been the toughest task. This year, the additions of cornerback Dunta Robinson and linebacker Sean Weatherspoon are promising enough to give Atlanta an over/under of nine wins, with the OVER priced at –175. Yet the Falcons are only 25-1 to win the Super Bowl. That’s a bargain.

You could say the same for the Philadelphia Eagles (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS) at 28-1. This has been a top-shelf football team for most of the past decade, ever since QB Donovan McNabb came to town. But he’s in Washington and out of the picture; running back Brian Westbrook (San Francisco) is gone as well, so the public is naturally not paying as much attention to the Eagles this preseason. Those two star players are gone to make room for QB Kevin Kolb (88.9 passer rating in limited action) and RB LeSean McCoy (4.1 yards per carry). There shouldn’t be all that dramatic a drop-off in production on offense. There are holes to fill on defense, as well, but co-ordinator Sean McDermott is considered one of the brighter young minds at his position. The Eagles have the right coaching to get the most out of their assets and eclipse their total of 8.5 wins (+115 OVER).

That wasn’t the case in the Meadowlands in 2009. The New York Giants (8-8 SU, 6-9-1 ATS) won the Super Bowl just three seasons ago, then defensive co-ordinator Steve Spagnuolo left to take the head coaching job in St. Louis. Things haven’t really been the same since. The Giants only had the No. 21-ranked defense in terms of efficiency last year under Bill Sheridan, who was promptly shown the door after just one season. He’s been replaced by Perry Fewell, who did some good work with the Buffalo Bills before they cleaned house in January. Provided Eli Manning (27 TDs, 14 INTs) can stay healthy, perhaps the Giants are ready for a Super Bowl comeback. They’ll pay out at 25-1 if they succeed. At the very least, a winning season is expected with a total of 8.5 wins and the OVER priced at –155.