The rebuilding of Auburn’s once successful football program should continue on Thursday night according to the college football game lines in the sportsbook.
The NCAAF odds makers have set the line at Auburn -2 in their game against Mississippi State on Sept. 9th even though the Tiger travel to Starkville to take on the Bulldogs. Auburn is coming off of a lop-sided 52 to 26 victory over Arkansas State.
High expectations are starting to build around Auburn although, after reading what I’ve written below, those expectations may not come from sports gamblers for Thursday night’s game. The Tigers still have plenty to prove and beating a tough SEC West rival on the road will not be easy to do.
#23 Auburn Tigers vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs
Where: Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, MS
When: September 9th, 2010 at 7:45 pm EST
TV: ESPN, ESPN3.com
Auburn Tigers -2 -110
Mississippi State Tigers +2 -110
The college football games lines trends definitely favor the Bulldogs in this one.
- The Auburn Tigers are 1 and 8 ATS in their last 9 games on the road.
- The Auburn Tigers are 3 and 15 ATS in their last 18 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- The Auburn Tigers are 1 and 5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- The Mississippi State Bulldogs are 4 and 1 ATS in their last 5 games in September.
- The Mississippi State Bulldogs are 4 and 1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
The trends say Mississippi State but so far the bettors do not. 70% of the betting public believes that Auburn will cover the spread in this game. That could change by Thursday.
It could especially change after a quick review of the stats from each team’s game last week. Auburn was exceptional on the ground when pounding out 367 yards. 171 of those yards came from quarterback Cameron Newton. The Tigers amassed a total of 608 yards against Arkansas State.
That’s all well and good but playing against Arkansas State’s D at home and against Mississippi State’s D on the road are two entirely different things. The Bulldogs beat Memphis 49 to 7 last Saturday and they looked great doing it. Mississippi State allowed Memphis to gain only 237 total yards, 196 through the air and 41 on the ground.
Yes, Auburn is probably going to gain over 300 yards of total offense in this game, but that might not matter because Auburn’s defense is, shall we say, far removed from the days of when they literally won games with their D. Auburn’s D allowed Arkansas State, that’s right, Arkansas State, to throw for 323 yards.
That’s Arkansas State. What is Mississippi State going to do to that horrible Auburn pass defense? They’re going to tear it apart. The Bulldogs threw for 372 total yards last Saturday. They ran for another 197.
It looks like this game is going to be a shoot-out and it probably will be, but there is a much safer bet to make on this game. The college football betting lines list Mississippi State as a 2-point home dog in this.
The fact that their defense is simply better than Auburn’s and that their offense is just as good means that the home team gets the nod.
NCAA Betting Pick: Mississippi State Bulldogs +2 -110
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