Football Betting

Miami Hurricanes vs Pitt Panthers Point Spread Free Pick

On Thursday night, the Miami Hurricanes #19  take on the Pittsburgh Panthers at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh.

Both teams are 1-1 with the Panthers losing game one and the Hurricanes losing to the Ohio State Buckeyes in week two. Let’s look over some sportsbook betting tips and make a prediction on Thursday’s game.

Looking at the college football betting odds, the sportsbook betting tips the line favoring the Hurricanes by -4 points and a straight up wager on the underdog Panthers will pay college football bettors +155 on the moneyline. The game total is set at 50½ points

Miami Florida Hurricanes -4 -110 -175
Pittsburgh Panthers +4 -110 +155
Game Total 50½
Location: Heinz Field – Pittsburgh PA
Game Time: 7:45pm
TV: ESPN

The Miami Hurricanes lost 28-14 to the Ohio State Buckeyes in week 2 and Coach Randy Shannon was livid after the game. Shannon knows his team should have won this game but his quarterback Jacory Harris threw four interceptions and the receivers should have caught three of the four interceptions.

Combine the offensive miscues with lackadaisical tackling on defense, and the Hurricanes beat themselves as much as the Buckeyes beat them.

Randy Shannon unloaded on his team and a more concerted effort on both sides of the ball is expected.

The Pittsburgh Panthers began the season as the fifteenth ranked team in the nation but an opening game loss to the Utah Utes knocked them out of the top-25.

The drop from the top-25 isn’t the team’s biggest concern, as the Panthers team is under scrutiny after the arrest of three Panthers players in separate incidents over the past two months. The team also dealt with similar issues last season with off field incidents involving WR Jon Baldwin and LB Adam Gunn and cut two more players for disciplinary reasons.

Here are a couple of sportsbook betting tips for this game to consider. The Panthers are 6-1 against the spread in games after an ATS loss, while the Hurricanes are just 3-13 ATS in their past 16 in games coming off a bye week.

The disciplinary problems aren’t Pittsburgh’s only problem, as they’re dealing with a few injuries on the defensive side of the ball.

In Thursday’s game, look for the Hurricanes to respond to Shannon’s tirade, as the team will be focused on offense, the receivers will run clean routes, and the defense's tackling will have energy and yards after the hit will be minimal. If the Hurricanes lose this game, a shot at any of the major bowls will be out of the question.

I’m going against the sportsbook betting tips and picking the Hurricanes to cover the -4 point spread.

NCAAF Betting Pick: Miami Florida Hurricanes -4

Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans Pointspread Free Pick

Every year for the past five years has been the Texans year, at least according to the NFL pundits and so called “experts” but I don’t see it happing until Gary Kubiak is gone. The Texans open their season at home against the stalwarts of the AFC South, the Indianapolis Colts. The bookmakers are playing into the Texans delusion as they have set the football betting line much closer than it probably should be against the Colts.

The NFL odds have set the football betting line with the visiting Colts as the -2-point favorites and a bet on the underdog Texans will pay bettors +110 on the moneyline.

Football Betting Lines

Indianapolis Colts -2 -110 -130
Houston Texans +2 -110 +110

Game Total 47½

Location: Reliant Stadium – Houston TX
Game Time: 1:00pm
TV: CBS

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The Houston Texans have lost 15 of 16 games against the Indianapolis Colts but like has been the story the pundits are making the Texans as their trendy pick to break through. To be fair to the Texans, they have a fantastic quarterback-receiver combination in Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson, as last season Schaub threw for 4770 yards and Johnson led the league with 1569 receiving yards.

The Texans run game is suspect; Steve Slaton had a solid rookie year but fell off last season and will back up Arian Foster. Foster was solid in six games last season averaging 4.8 yards a game. However now that their opponents have had a chance to see what he brings, that number will drop considerably.

The Houston Texans defense is young and improving but right now, especially after some poor showings in the preseason it’s clear the defense isn’t on the same level as the Texans pass game.

It’s hard to bet against Peyton Manning in any game and especially in any game where the line is less than a field goal. Manning is waiting for his new contract and after Tom Brady signed to be the highest paid player in the league, Manning will get his soon.

The Colts are still the favorites to win the AFC South, beyond Peyton Manning, the team doesn’t have any superstars and that’s worked fine for the past decade. They play like robots and just win, the winning is dominant in September where they have a .813 winning percentage over the past decade. It’s their best month of the season.

Manning has Reggie Wayne back but look for Pierre Garcon to take some of the big plays that Wayne is used to getting. Dallas Clark is still money, Austin Collie had a great rookie season catching 676 yards and seven touchdowns and those numbers should improve in 2010.

The Indianapolis Colts defense is always a question mark but the team seems to answer it every year. They begin the season with Dwight Freeney and Bob Sanders healthy and they will cause enough problems for the Texans offense to keep their scoring to a minimum.

These teams have played several close games over the years and part of that has to do with the Texans treating this game like their Super Bowl. The line of just -2 on the Colts looks fantastic to me and I think the Colts win this game by 10.

NFL Betting Pick: Indianapolis Colts -2

Houston vs UTEP Pointspread Free Pick

Old-fashioned shootouts and gunslingers are a commonplace when there is a Texas college football betting rivalry set to occur.

UTEP Miners (1-0) at Houston Cougars (1-0)

Live from Robertson Stadium, Houston, TX
Kickoff: Friday, Sept. 10 at 10:15 EST
TV: ESPN

College Football Betting Odds:

UTEP +20
Houston -20

UTEP will make the 12-hour Interstate trip to face their conference and intra-state opponent, the Houston Cougars on Friday. After an impressive 40-point demolishing of Texas State in their home opener, the Cougars are on the prowl for a Top 25 national college football betting ranking.

According to the USA Today Rankings Poll, Houston currently rests as the 26th-ranked team in the nation, after receiving 87 votes. 25th-ranked South Carolina received three more votes than the Cougars to secure the final spot in the Top 25.

Similar to Boise State and TCU, Houston is hungry to prove they are another mid-major team that deserves attention on the national stage. After posting 68 points in week one against Texas Tech, the second most points scored in 2010 college football betting, the Cougars seem poised for the challenge.

Led by five touchdown passes from quarterback Case Keenum, the Houston offense had a monstrous first half effort, putting up 48 points and adding another six before halftime when linebacker Matt Nicholson returned an intercepted pass for a touchdown.

Keenum broke school records for career completions (1,098) and passing yards (13,179) in the win – two records previously held by Eagles starting quarterback Kevin Kolb.

The UTEP Miners, meanwhile, had a bit of trouble at home in their college football betting opener against Arkansas-Pine Bluff (ARPB).  The Miners went into halftime up just 14-10, in what was projected to be an easy victory for UTEP.

Fortunately for the Miner faithful, UTEP scored 17 unanswered points in the second half to pull away and defeat ARPB 31-10.

UTEP will have a difficult time on the road against a Houston team that has one of the best passing offenses in the conference, if not the nation.

Marshall Mention: Houston is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games.

A high-scoring affair is in order, but the Miners don’t seem to have enough firepower to keep up with Keenum and the Cougars prolific passing attack.

College football betting prediction: Houston Cougars (-20)

Penn State vs Alabama Pointspread Free Pick

Are the Crimson Tide in danger of suffering a rare home loss to Penn State on Saturday night? Oddsmakers don’t really think so as Alabama is a 12-point favorite on WagerWeb.com. But the Tide will be without star RB Mark Ingram and DE Marcell Dareus, certainly making an upset possible.

Of course Dareus is serving the second of his two-game suspension after the school chose not to appeal to get it lowered to just one game earlier this week. Ingram, the reigning Heisman winner, missed the opener after having minor knee surgery and isn’t quite yet ready to play. Trent Richardson ran for 66 yards and two scores against San Jose State last week despite sitting out the second half. He will start again.

Penn State started a true freshman at QB, Robert Bolden, for the first time in an opener last week against Youngstown State. And Bolden earned another start at least after going 20 of 29 passes for 239 yards, two TDs and an interception in the 44-14 win. RB  Evan Royster had 40 yards on 11 carries, leaving him 42 yards short of becoming the sixth Penn State player to rush for 3,000 career yards. One concern in that game was Youngstown State’s redshirt freshman QB Kurt Hess completed 21 of 25 passes, including an 80-yard touchdown against the Nittany Lions.

Alabama can match its fourth longest home winning streak of 16 games with a win, accomplished twice before (ending in 1940 and 1963). Penn State is 8-1 on the road over the past two seasons.

The Crimson Tide lead the series 8-5 but the Nittany Lions own a 2-1 edge in Tuscaloosa with a 23-3 win in 1986 and a 9-0 victory in 1990. PSU head coach Joe Paterno has been on the sidelines for all 13 meetings between the two schools, the first coming in the 1959 Liberty Bowl while Paterno was still a Nittany Lion assistant coach. Paterno is 4-8 as the Penn State head coach against Alabama.

The Nittany Lions are 4-8 under Paterno against No. 1 teams. They haven’t beaten a top-ranked opponent since toppling Notre Dame on Nov. 17, 1990.

Bet on Penn State-Alabama at WagerWeb.com

Auburn vs Mississippi State Pointspread Free Pick

The rebuilding of Auburn’s once successful football program should continue on Thursday night according to the college football game lines in the sportsbook.

The NCAAF odds makers have set the line at Auburn -2 in their game against Mississippi State on Sept. 9th even though the Tiger travel to Starkville to take on the Bulldogs. Auburn is coming off of a lop-sided 52 to 26 victory over Arkansas State.

High expectations are starting to build around Auburn although, after reading what I’ve written below, those expectations may not come from sports gamblers for Thursday night’s game. The Tigers still have plenty to prove and beating a tough SEC West rival on the road will not be easy to do.

#23 Auburn Tigers vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs

Where: Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, MS

When: September 9th, 2010 at 7:45 pm EST

TV: ESPN, ESPN3.com

NCAAF Betting Lines

Auburn Tigers -2 -110

Mississippi State Tigers +2 -110

The college football games lines trends definitely favor the Bulldogs in this one.

• The Auburn Tigers are 1 and 8 ATS in their last 9 games on the road.
• The Auburn Tigers are 3 and 15 ATS in their last 18 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
• The Auburn Tigers are 1 and 5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing 280 yards passing in their previous game.
• The Mississippi State Bulldogs are 4 and 1 ATS in their last 5 games in September.
• The Mississippi State Bulldogs are 4 and 1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.

The trends say Mississippi State but so far the bettors do not. 70% of the betting public believes that Auburn will cover the spread in this game. That could change by Thursday.

It could especially change after a quick review of the stats from each team’s game last week. Auburn was exceptional on the ground when pounding out 367 yards. 171 of those yards came from quarterback Cameron Newton. The Tigers amassed a total of 608 yards against Arkansas State.

That’s all well and good but playing against Arkansas State’s D at home and against Mississippi State’s D on the road are two entirely different things. The Bulldogs beat Memphis 49 to 7 last Saturday and they looked great doing it. Mississippi State allowed Memphis to gain only 237 total yards, 196 through the air and 41 on the ground.

Yes, Auburn is probably going to gain over 300 yards of total offense in this game, but that might not matter because Auburn’s defense is, shall we say, far removed from the days of when they literally won games with their D. Auburn’s D allowed Arkansas State, that’s right, Arkansas State, to throw for 323 yards.

That’s Arkansas State. What is Mississippi State going to do to that horrible Auburn pass defense? They’re going to tear it apart. The Bulldogs threw for 372 total yards last Saturday. They ran for another 197.

It looks like this game is going to be a shoot-out and it probably will be, but there is a much safer bet to make on this game. The college football betting lines list Mississippi State as a 2-point home dog in this.

The fact that their defense is simply better than Auburn’s and that their offense is just as good means that the home team gets the nod.

NCAA Betting Pick: Mississippi State Bulldogs +2 -110

Tom Brady Accident Photos

Tom Brady was involved in a car wreck earlier today.

 Brady's father, Tom Brady Sr. told the Associated Press that his son is OK. "I understand he's fine, but I haven't talked to him," Tom Brady Sr. told the Associated Press.

Hannah LeStrange told the Globe that she heard the accident happen. "It was just really high-impact, you could tell. The front of the Audi (Brady's car) was off," she said

Bill Barron told the Globe the crash sounded like thunder. "I thought it was a college student who had taken his dad's car and got into an accident," he after viewing the scene from his apartment window.

Minnesota Vikings vs New Orleans Saints Pointspread Free Pick

The NFL football odds in the sportsbook are currently at New Orleans -5 versus the Minnesota Vikings in the 2010-2011 NFL Kick-Off Game.

The Saints have had a relatively quiet off-season, not counting the prescription medication scandal (remember that?), for a defending Super Bowl champ.  Their opponents, those whacky Minnesota Vikings, have not.

Favre is back, yah?  Yah, as Marge Gunderson from Fargo would say, definitely yah.

Unfortunately for the Twin Cities, Brett isn’t back healthy.  Heck, he isn’t even back feeling well and what’s worse for the Vikings is the fact that his #1 target from a year ago, Sidney Rice, is out until at least Week 7 with an injury.  But the Vikings still have one of the best, if not the best, defensive lines in all of football, the terrific Adrian Peterson, and, when he’s not suffering from a migraine, flashy WR Percy Harvin.

“Yah”, Marge says, “but the Saints got Drew Brees.”

Yes, Marge, they do indeed.

Minnesota Vikings vs. New Orleans Saints

Where:  Louisiana Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana
When:  Sept. 9th, 2010 at 8:30 pm EST
TV:  NBC
Radio:  125 (MIN) 126 (NO) 

NFL Betting Lines

Minnesota Vikings                  +5 -110            +200    O 48 -110

New Orleans Saints                -5 -110             -240     U 48 -110

Based on the trends, a correction may be required regarding the NFL football expert odds.

• The New Orleans Saints are 5 and 0 in their last 5 games in September.
• The New Orleans Saints are 2 and 6 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
• The Minnesota Vikings are 5 and 0 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these two teams.
• The Minnesota Vikings are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.

Sure, the NFL football odds online assume that the Saints should beat the Vikings by at least 5 points, but the trends don’t support the odds.  In order to really gauge whether or not the Vikings or Saints will cover in this game, one needs to consider some factors.

The first is an obvious one.  If the Saints can pressure Brett Favre the way that they did in last year’s NFC Championship game, that is putting Brett on his back and roughing him up, then Favre and the Vikings are probably going to lose.

The consideration regarding this factor is that the Saints may be without a 100% Jonathan Vilma and they definitely won’t be able to use FS Darren Sharper.  Sharper is out for at least 6 weeks.  But the Saints pass rush might actually be better this year than it was last year.  Former Bear DE Alex Brown is a big step up from the often times hurt Charles Grant, Will Smith is a stud on the other side of the defensive line and Sedrick Ellis should be better this year than he was last year.  Also supporting the pass rush is the fact that the Saints might have the best CB combo in the league with Jabari Greer and Tracey Porter.  It appears that the Saints will get to Favre in this game.

Now, there is something else to consider and that’s whether or not the Vikings can get to Drew Brees before he can burn them.  The Vikings pass rush is excellent.  There’s no doubt that they’re going to pressure Brees.  The big question is whether or not Brees can be effective against the Vikings with pressure coming at him.

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Brees shouldn’t have an issue.  Although the Vikings pass rush is the best in the league (in my opinion!), their defensive backfield is suspect.  The suspect defensive backfield will force the Vikings to put pressure on Brees with only four players.  If they have to blitz Drew, if they can’t pressure Brees with four, then he’s going to carve them up like he does the family turkey at Thanksgiving.

Oh, yes, Saints WR Marques Colston is questionable for this game and Reggie Bush missed practice on Wednesday, but unlike the Vikings who have to rely on Percy Harvin because WR Bernard Berrian on the other side isn’t going to help them, the Saints are loaded with weapons.  Brees is going to have a good game.  That’s for sure.

So, what’s going on here?  It’s obvious to me that the Saints are going to be very difficult for the Vikings to beat on Thursday night, but there is one more factor to consider when it comes to NFL football odds handicapping.  That factor is Minnesota RB Adrian Peterson.  If Peterson can get going, and the Saints concentrate too much on rushing Brett, then the Vikings could not just cover the spread but win this game outright.

I have to believe that Saints D-coordinator Gregg Williams knows exactly what the Vikings are going to want to do with Peterson.  He should have something in store for the running game.

My NFL football odds prediction on this game is that the Saints will cover the 5-point spread.  I’m not at all happy with it and I do believe that the Vikings have a huge shot to make me wrong, but I keep thinking about the lack of weapons that Brett has in the WR position and the fact that the Saints’ D might actually be better this year than it was last year.

I’m going with New Orleans to cover on Thursday night, but if I were playing one of those new 9 ½ point teaser bets, I’d probably go with the Vikings.

NFL Betting Pick:  New Orleans Saints -5 -110

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Sources:  espn.com, covers.com, tsn.com, nfl.com

Minnesota Vikings vs New Orleans Saints Free Pick

Pro Football starts this Thursday with perhaps the most exciting game of the early season, as the reigning Super Bowl champs begin a defense campaign of their title against their NFC nemesis, the Minnesota Vikings, led once again by legendary quarterback Brett Favre, who has rejoined the team for his final season. This game offers an excellent football betting opportunity for NFL fans to get the season started right.

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The Saints enter the game as the NFL picks to win, and this line presents a great chance to win some cash. The defending champs deserve some credit, as they easily handled the Indianapolis Colts in the grand finale of last season, but the Vikings are back stronger than ever this season, and this team has what it takes to stop New Orleans.

NFL betting line:

New Orleans Saints +5, -110
Minnesota Vikings -5, -110

The Saints didn’t show much spark in the preseason, as they went 2-2 without much play by Super Bowl MVP Drew Brees. However, the Saints team this season is essentially the exact same team that took the Super Bowl rings home, but may lead to their downfall in the 2010 season. As the team did not make hardly any adjustments or improvements during the offseason, expect the NFL defenses to be prepared for Brees and the Saints passing game this season. If New Orleans can’t adjust, they won’t make it past the NFC Championship game this season.

Favre, however, is destined for success in his final NFL season, although he failed to showed his mentality in the preseason, where he completed only 17 of 30 for no touchdowns and two interceptions. However, never underestimate the mindset of Favre, who likely has been reliving the interception he threw against the Saints in the overtime loss last season that eliminated the Vikings from the playoffs. Coming off his best NFL season ever, Favre will be looking to improve even more in 2010.

NFL bettors can study all the stats available, the final score of this game will be determined by one player, Brett Favre. And after the team’s loss last season, don’t bet on that happening again.

NFL Free Pick - Minnesota

Donovan McNabb will start Sunday for Redskins

Donovan McNabb will face the Dallas Cowboys for the fourth time in less than a year Sunday as McNabb has confirmed he will be back from an ankle injury that cost him two weeks of the preseason – Washington is a 3.5-point underdog on WagerWeb.com’s betting odds for Sunday night’s game.

McNabb practiced Monday for the first time in more than two weeks and looked good, reportedly showing no signs of the ankle bothering him. He admits it’s not 100 percent but that he will be on the field. He lost all three starts to Dallas as a member of the Eagles last year and wasn’t very good in the final two of those.

“Am I ready to take this offense on for Game 1 and the rest o

f the season? Absolutely. That’s something, when you learn a new scheme, learn a style of your coach, the approach and the game planning, that’s something you build over time,” he said despite missing all that practice time with his new team.

McNabb, during a radio interview, also said the Redskins need defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth, who has been buried in coach Mike Shanahan’s doghouse. Washington reportedly is talking with Tennessee about trading Haynesworth back to the Titans, but if he’s a member of the Skins he will play Sunday despite early report the team might deactivate him.

“It hasn’t become a distraction,” McNabb said of the Haynesworth situation. “The one thing that I try to do, as well as the rest of the guys, is not let it affect our locker room. Albert is a guy that’s one of our brothers in the locker room, and we want to protect him and make sure that he’s taken care of and he’s fine. Albert is a guy who understands now, he understands that, hey, I’ve got to put the time and effort in to get an opportunity to show what I can do. And he knows what he can do. We can’t win without him. He plays a major part on our defense, and everyone knows that. It’s just unfortunate what’s been going on and how everything has transpired, but that’s the game of football, and I think he’ll handle it the right way.”

Meanwhile, Dallas QB Tony Romo tends to shine in Week 1. In his first three opening day starts he has thrown eight touchdown passes to only two interceptions. In 2007, he torched the Giants for 345 yards on 15-of-24 passing for four touchdowns and one pick. In 2008 at Cleveland, he completed 24 of 32 passes for 320 yards with one TD and one interception. Last year at Tampa, he completed 16 of 27 passes for 353 yards and three touchdowns while not being picked.

2010 Regular Season Betting Preview

2010 Regular Season Betting Preview

Everybody in the NFL is undefeated right now. The Cleveland Browns are tied in the standings with the New Orleans Saints. This won’t last, of course. There are only so many teams equipped with the right talent and personnel to make a serious run for the Super Bowl. We looked at the top favorites in last week’s 2010 NFL betting preview; this week, we’ll look at two more strong candidates, as well as three teams on the fringe who could make the leap this season.

The Baltimore Ravens (9-7 SU, 8-7-1 ATS) certainly consider themselves a viable Super Bowl team. So does the betting market. Baltimore is 11-1 to win its first championship in 10 years, and a –125 chalk to go OVER 10 wins during the regular season. The Ravens were the most efficient team in the NFL last year, according to Football Outsiders, but they managed to lose four games by a field goal or less. Some of those games should go the other way this year. Baltimore is founded on defense and running, giving third-year quarterback Joe Flacco (21 TDs, 12 INTs in 2009) every opportunity to continue along his developmental curve.

We’ve got another star QB on the rise in Green Bay, where Aaron Rodgers (30 TDs, seven INTs) is also entering his third year starting for the Packers (11-5 SU, 11-4-1 ATS). Actually, there’s not much more Rodgers can do to improve – he’s already performing at an elite level. But Green Bay can still do better. A healthy offensive line is a good start – Rodgers was sacked 50 times last year, most in the NFL. And the special teams finished dead last in efficiency in 2009. Improvement in those areas should help lift the Packers above their total of 9.5 wins (–190 OVER) and keep them in the Super Bowl betting conversation at 10-1.

The third-year QB parade continues with Matt Ryan (22 TDs, 14 INTs) and the Atlanta Falcons (9-7 SU, 11-5 ATS). As good as Ryan has been as a pro, the Falcons have been lacking elsewhere on the field – don’t forget, this team is only three years removed from the Bobby Petrino fiasco. Putting a strong and consistent defense together has been the toughest task. This year, the additions of cornerback Dunta Robinson and linebacker Sean Weatherspoon are promising enough to give Atlanta an over/under of nine wins, with the OVER priced at –175. Yet the Falcons are only 25-1 to win the Super Bowl. That’s a bargain.

You could say the same for the Philadelphia Eagles (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS) at 28-1. This has been a top-shelf football team for most of the past decade, ever since QB Donovan McNabb came to town. But he’s in Washington and out of the picture; running back Brian Westbrook (San Francisco) is gone as well, so the public is naturally not paying as much attention to the Eagles this preseason. Those two star players are gone to make room for QB Kevin Kolb (88.9 passer rating in limited action) and RB LeSean McCoy (4.1 yards per carry). There shouldn’t be all that dramatic a drop-off in production on offense. There are holes to fill on defense, as well, but co-ordinator Sean McDermott is considered one of the brighter young minds at his position. The Eagles have the right coaching to get the most out of their assets and eclipse their total of 8.5 wins (+115 OVER).

That wasn’t the case in the Meadowlands in 2009. The New York Giants (8-8 SU, 6-9-1 ATS) won the Super Bowl just three seasons ago, then defensive co-ordinator Steve Spagnuolo left to take the head coaching job in St. Louis. Things haven’t really been the same since. The Giants only had the No. 21-ranked defense in terms of efficiency last year under Bill Sheridan, who was promptly shown the door after just one season. He’s been replaced by Perry Fewell, who did some good work with the Buffalo Bills before they cleaned house in January. Provided Eli Manning (27 TDs, 14 INTs) can stay healthy, perhaps the Giants are ready for a Super Bowl comeback. They’ll pay out at 25-1 if they succeed. At the very least, a winning season is expected with a total of 8.5 wins and the OVER priced at –155.