Football Betting

Major Off-Season Additions - NFL Impact

Okay NFL betting fanatics, with the start of the 2009 NFL wagering season drawing closer by the day, this look at which NFL teams helped themselves out the most during the annual free agent signing period, will give NFL betting enthusiasts everywhere the inside knowledge they will need in order to make a multitude of bankroll boosting wagers each and every Sunday of the upcoming 2009 NFL preseason, regular season and postseason.

Several teams on this list helped themselves in a big way with one or more free agent signings while others may have signed a lesser amount of players but ones that will undoubtedly make an impact in their new places of employment.

With NFL preseason camps set to open in just a few weeks, let me get started.

New England Patriots

• RB Fred Taylor
• WR Joey Galloway
• WR Greg Lewis
• TE Chris Baker
• TE Alex Smith
• CB Shawn Springs

Analysis: Say what you like about the New England Patriots, (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS, 8-7-1 O/U in 2008) but they’ve been maddeningly consistent over the years, posting a stellar 11-5 record even after losing starting quarterback Tom Brady in the first game of the 2008 regular season.

Now, if Brady can come back healthy, New England is set to make another run at a Super Bowl title by making the best offseason free agent signings of any team in the league.

New England added Hall of Fame-bound running back Fred Taylor to help shore up its mediocre rushing attack while also adding veteran wide receivers Joey Galloway and Greg Lewis and tight ends Chris Baker and Alex Smith, not to mention veteran cornerback Shawn Springs.

While many football pundits may think most of these players are on the respective last legs, I say the Pats made some excellent free agent additions that could lead to a Super Bowl title either in 2009 or 2010. The Patriots are +600 to win Super Bowl XLIV in the BetUS Sportsbook.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• TE Kellen Winslow
• RB Derrick Ward
• QB Byron Leftwich

Analysis: The Buccaneers (9-7 SU, 8-8 ATS, 8-8 O/U in 2008) are getting a top-flight tight end in Kellen Winslow and one that could reach Pro Bowl status immediately with his new change of scenery should first-year head coach Raheem Morris figure out how to use the fleet-footed tight end properly.

I also love Tampa Bay’s addition of former New York Giants running back Derrick Ward, a runner I think has 1,200 yards written all over his 2009 season if the Bucs use him early and often.

Finally, I think the addition of veteran quarterback Byron Leftwich could turn out to be a stroke of genius, (although I admit I never would have parted ways with Jeff Garcia) following a positive season as the backup QB for the Super Bowl-champion Pittsburgh Steelers. The Buccaneers are +4000 to win Super Bowl XLIV in the BetUS Sportsbook.

Atlanta Falcons

• Tony Gonzalez

Analysis: The Falcons (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS, 7-9 O/U in 2008) pulled off a move that I thought was an absolute stroke of genius by adding future Hall of Fame tight end to their explosive offense which features the best young quarterback in the game in my estimation in second-year signal caller Matt Ryan.

Now, Ryan, who is advanced and poised beyond his years, has two reliable wide receivers, one of the game’s most elusive running backs and now, a hall of Fame tight end that led all tight ends in receptions and receiving yards in 2008.

Sounds like the Falcons have a Super Bowl quality offense to me. Now, if Atlanta can improve its uninspiring, but improving defense, this team could be a force for years to come in the NFC. The Falcons are +2500 to win Super Bowl XLIV in the BetUS Sportsbook.

Denver Broncos

• QB Kyle Orton
• QB Chris Simms
• RB Correll Buckhalter
• RB LaMont Jordan
• WR Jabar Gaffney
• S Brian Dawkins

Analysis: The Broncos (8-8 SU, 4-11-1 ATS, 8-7-1 O/U) may have a rookie head coach this season in Josh McDaniel, but the franchise wisely added several veteran players that will make the first-year head coach’s life a lot easier.

Denver got an absolute steal by nabbing on of the top 5 safeties in the game in former Philadelphia Eagle Brian Dawkins. The Broncos also added another former Eagle in running back Correll Buckhalter that should make an immediate difference in his first season in Denver. I also like quarterback Kyle Orton who was traded to replace former starter Jay Cutler who clashed with McDaniel just soon after his arrival in Denver. For those that don’t remember, Chris Sims was once one of the best the up-and-coming young quarterbacks in the game as a member of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers before suffering a serious spleen injury two seasons ago. Veteran running back LaMont Jordan should help show Moreno the way as a rookie. The Broncos are +4000 to win Super Bowl XLIV in the BetUS Sportsbook.

Philadelphia Eagles

• Jason Peters
• Ellis Hobbs

Analysis: The Eagles (9-6-1 SU, 10-6 ATS, 7-8-1 O/U in 2008) landed a Pro Bowl left tackle in veteran Jason Peters and added a four-year starter in veteran cornerback Ellis Hobbs, two solid moves that will help Philadelphia immediately in 2009.

However, Philadelphia also parted ways with several key free agents, which puts them in both categories for offseason free agent transactions, positive and negative.

Philadelphia added wide receiver Jeremy Maclin and running back LeSean McCoy through the draft but may have set themselves back by losing Pro Bowl-caliber veteran safety, Brian Dawkins, a player that many believed to be the heart and soul of Philadelphia’s defensive unit. The Eagles are +1600 to win Super Bowl XLIV in the BetUS Sportsbook.

Jacksonville Jaguars

• Torry Holt

Analysis: The Jaguars (5-11 SU, 7-9 ATS, 6-9-1 O/U in 2008) beat several idiotic teams (Philadelphia, Miami) in need of a veteran wide receiver to the punch when it comes to Torry Holt, a receiver that I still believe will top the 1,000-yard mark at least for the next two seasons or so. Now, if Jacksonville quarterback David Garrard can bounce back from an absolutely dismal 2008 season in which he was finally named the unquestioned starter, the Jags could be back in the postseason in 2009. The Jaguars are +3200 to win Super Bowl XLIV in the BetUS Sportsbook.

Kansas City Chiefs

• QB Matt Cassel
• WR Bobby Engram
• LB Mike Vrabel
• G Mike Goff

Analysis: The Chiefs (2-14 SU, 8-8 ATS, 8-8 O/U in 2008) have gotten off to an excellent start in their transformation process under knowledgeable first-year GM Scott Pioli. Not only did the Chiefs make a good hire by naming former Arizona Cardinals offensive coordinator Todd Haley as head coach, but Pioli brought in quarterback Matt Cassel who was a revelation for the New England Patriots last season while also adding dependable but not spectacular veterans Bobby Engram, Mike Vrabel and Mike Goff. While none of these players will immediately turn the lowly Chiefs into instant contenders, they will all help the franchise start to move in the right direction as they start to turn things around. The Chiefs are +6600 to win Super Bowl XLIV in the BetUS Sportsbook.

Oakland Raiders

• QB Jeff Garcia

Analysis: The Raiders (5-11 SU, 7-9 ATS, 6-9-1 O/U in 2008) pulled off one of the best free agent signing of any team in the league by adding veteran quarterback Jeff Garcia, a player I absolutely love despite his physical shortcomings.

I saw Garcia up close and personal when he took an underachieving Philadelphia Eagles team to the postseason after starting quarterback Donovan McNabb went down with a season-ending injury a couple of years back and I can unequivocally say that there may not be another quarterback in the entire league that can inspire an entire team to play above its talent and apparent capabilities they way Jeff Garcia can.

It’s kind of hard to not go all out for your team when you see the smallish Garcia bounce up off the turf time after time following a vicious hit, cheering guys on as if they had just made a Super Bowl-winning play.

The Raiders have a solid defensive unit, a spectacular core of running backs and now a veteran signal caller that knows how to get the job done when it counts most. Unfortunately, the Raiders are still run by out-dated owner Al Davis and have a first-year head coach that may be overmatched after looking overmatched as an interim replacement last season, not to mention a grossly overpaid former No. 1 overall draft pick at quarterback (JaMarcus Russell) that doesn’t have one iota of a clue.

However, knowing the sad-sack Raiders, Garcia may not get on the field to a large extent, no matter how much he can help them win ballgames right now. The Raiders are +10000 to win Super Bowl XLIV in the BetUS Sportsbook.

NFC South - First Look at the Early Odds

Playing the division winners is always one of the most profitable options available to NFL fans.  If your a serious NFL follower, you already know which teams are set to do well, then through the course of training camp, pre-season games and the entirety of the season you will see numerous betting opportunities.

The NFL Training Camps haven’t even started but if fans are going to have a successful, profitable, 2009-2010 season, then they will need to start putting money down right now on which teams are going to win the respective divisions in the NFL.

The first division that we’ll take a look at is the NFC South where three teams are expected to battle for a divisional title and two actually look like they might have a shot at a conference title.

Let’s take a look at the teams who will be battling for the NFC South crown.

NFL: NFC South Preview To Win

1. New Orleans Saints +180 - - Drew Brees has had one of the greatest stretches in NFL history for a quarterback and should be even better this season when he gets a full strength Marques Colston back. If Devery Henderson can step it up, and Lance Moore continues to improve, the top three wide-outs in New Orleans might be the best in the NFL. Reggie Bush, Pierre Thomas and former Pac-1o stand-out, Mike Bell, should provide a solid run game, but all gamblers know that the success of this team will depend on the schemes developed by Gregg Williams, the new defensive coordinator. Williams will have some parts to work with as the Saints have a talented front 7 that so far, with the exception of Jonathan Vilma, hasn’t lived up to it’s potential.

2. Carolina Panthers +225 - - Julius Peppers isn’t happy, but the DE hasn’t been all that good the past couple of years anyhow. A bigger issue is whether or not the Panthers’ front line can put enough pressure on the QBs in the NFC South, as a unit, to help their cornerbacks. Both Chris Gamble and Richard Marshall can get beat and the Saints and Falcons have the offensive weapons to do it. On offense, QB Jake Delhomme and WR Steve Smith are a year older. So is Muhsin Muhammed. This team could tail off big time after going 12 and 4 in 2008.

3. Atlanta Falcons +230 - - QB Matt Ryan and RB Michael Turner won’t surprise anyone this season and the Falcons really didn’t improve too much in the WR department during the off-season. The biggest issue, a major issue, is at linebacker where the Falcons lost two starters. That just isn’t going to cut it in a division where defense will ultimately rule the day.

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers +450 - - The odds on the Bucs to win the NFC South this year should be roughly 30 to 1. Luke McCown will be the starter at quarterback in Bucland. Really? Luke McCown? The defense isn’t nearly what it used to be and the Bucs enter this season with a new head coach. This team could win 3 games…okay, maybe 4...in 2009.

Analysis: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have no shot to win this division unless injuries decimate the Panthers, Falcons and Saints. Out of those three teams, the Panthers have the least chance of winning the division because Delhomme and Smith are a year older. Eventually, those injuries, both players have suffered quite a few, should take their toll. The days of wine and roses for Carolina are probably over as their defense just isn’t dominating, the schedule is tougher in 2009, and they just don’t look ready for this season. Atlanta is the sexy pick of many bettors and analysts to win the NFC South in 2009, but they don’t have the defense. I just can’t see a team losing two starting linebackers picking it up enough to beat the rest of this division. That leaves the New Orleans Saints who happen to be the favorite in the sportsbook. The offense will once against be ranked in the top 3 in almost every significant category. It’s the defense that Saints’ fans, and gamblers, have been worried about for some time. Well, don’t worry. With Jabari Greer and Darren Sharper coming over to solidify the defensive backfield, and Jonathan Vilma anchoring the front seven at the middle linebacker position, the Saints should be very solid as new defensive coordinator, Gregg Williams, has been a success everywhere he’s gone. Ride the favorite in the NFC South is what I say.

Pick: New Orleans Saints

Denver Broncos vs Atlanta Falcons Point Spread Free Pick

BetUS NFL betting odds: ATLANTA -5.5, Total 51

NOTABLE STAT: Denver has allowed 5.1 yards per rushing attempt

KEY NFL FOOTBALL BETTING TREND: Broncos are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games

The Denver Broncos (5-4 SU, 2-6-1 ATS), coming off an emotional and dramatic win, will travel east on Sunday to tackle the Atlanta Falcons (6-3 SU & ATS), one of pleasant surprises of the NFL season, in NFL sports betting action that is set to get underway at 1 PM ET at the Georgia Dome (artificial turf) in Atlanta, GA.

In the BetUS NFL football betting odds, the Falcons are listed as a 5.5-point favorite, with a posted total of 51 points.

Here are some NFL football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

* DEN is 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight games

* DEN has lost four of its last six games SU

* DEN has covered two of its last eight road games

* DEN has lost six of its last eight road games SU

* DEN has played eight of its last 11 road games OVER the total

* ATL has won and covered four of its last five road games

* ATL has played 11 of its last 16 games OVER the total

* ATL has played four of its last six games UNDER the total

* ATL has won and covered its last five home games

* ATL has played seven of its last eight home games OVER the total

Also...

* DEN has won six of the last seven meetings SU

* The last five meetings have gone OVER the total

The Falcons have certainly responded to new coach Mike Smith, especially at home, where they are 4-0, both straight-up and against the number. And Matt Ryan (60%, 11 TDs, 5 INTs) has come along just fine for this club, which at the moment is very much in the running for a division title, something that may have been unthinkable in the wake of last year's multiple disasters. What's doubly important here is that Ryan is throwing with a sizzling 70% accuracy and has thrown five TD passes with no interceptions in the Georgia Dome.

Of course, Jay Cutler may be even tougher for the opposition to deal with here. The Denver signal-caller had a monster outing against Cleveland last Thursday, throwing for 447 yards and three TDs. At this pace, he's on track to gain over 4600 yards through the air, which, if Denver winds up winning the division title, could put him in the running for the MVP award. Helping out are the standout wide receiving duo of Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal, who have 109 receptions between them.

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It's likely that the Broncos will have more than their share of headaches stopping the Atlanta running game, inasmuch as they have yielded 5.1 yards a carry on the season. And the Falcons come with another MVP candidate in Michael Turner (890 rushing yards), who is nicely complemented by Jerious Norwood, who came out of the backfield last week to catch a 67-yard touchdown pass. We hate to keep emphasizing it, but Smith is developing something roughly similar to the attack he saw last year as an assistant in Jacksonville (which has Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew carrying the ball).

Meanwhile, Denver's running game was in tatters last week, and Mike Shanahan had to make things work with Peyton Hillis, who shared the Arkansas backfield with Darren McFadden and Felix Jones last season. Who else is healthy? Well, they signed free agent running back Alex Haynes this past week.

We're not altogether comfortable with the number here, but we can see the total working better for us. Both teams have been moving in the direction of high-scoring games (see trends above) and neither defense really has the capability to stop the other's strength. Let's go OVER the 51 points, as it is posted in the BetUS NFL pro football sports betting odds.

JAY'S PLAY: OVER 51 ***

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

New Orleans Saints v Atlanta Falcons Point Spread Free Pick

The New Orleans Saints take on the Atlanta Falcons in a game with serious playoff implications for the NFC South. The Saints are 4 and 4 on the season. The Falcons are 5 and 3 on the season. If the Saints expect to make the playoffs this year, they have to start winning games within the NFC Conference as well as winning games in their division.

For sports betting fans, it doesn’t get any more interesting than the Saints traveling to Atlanta after a bye to face their long time rivals. New Orleans has been okay against the online betting spread this season going 5 and 3. The Saints will be without Reggie Bush which means their running game will depend on Deuce McAllister and Pierre Thomas. But the Saints will still have that incredible wide receiving corps led by Marques Colston and the fact that Drew Brees is playing at an MVP level has to make NFL betting fans feel good about the Saints’ chances on Sunday.

The Atlanta Falcons have been a pleasant surprise for BetUS online sportsbook wagering fans this year. They are much better than anyone expected. The reason, of course, is that their rookie quarterback, Matt Ryan, hasn’t played like a rookie this season. With Ryan throwing the ball well, and the Falcons’ defense stopping offenses in their tracks, the Falcons actually have a chance to win the NFC South. What a turnaround that would be!

Here are the BetUS online betting odds for this game:

New Orleans Saints + 1 - 110 Ev O 50 - 110

Atlanta Falcons -1 - 110 - 120 U 50 - 110

Here are a few online wagering trends that might help us find a good online bet in this game:

The New Orleans Saints are 2 and 5 in their last 7 games versus a team from the NFC Conference.

The Over is 8-1-1 in the New Orleans Saints last 10 games versus a team from the NFC Conference.

The Atlanta Falcons are 4 and 0 against the spread in their last 4 games at home.

The Over is 6 and 1 in the Atlanta Falcons last 7 games on field turf.

The Saints will go into this game after coming off of a bye. I fully expect Saints’ coach Sean Payton to have a few perfect plays designed for the Saints to get into the end zone.

New Orleans should put up close to thirty points in this game. Of course, Atlanta is at home which means they will have their fans rollicking all through this game. Because of that, I expect the Falcons to also put up a bunch of points against that porous Saints’ defense.

I like the BetUS over in this game. To me, that’s the online bet that makes the most sense. Atlanta will find it difficult to stop Drew Brees and that Saints’ offense. The Saints will find it difficult to stop Matt Ryan and that Falcons’ offense.

I will be putting money on the New Orleans Saints and the Atlanta Falcons to go over 50 points in this game.

Monday Night Football Stats and Trends

NEW YORK GIANTS ATLANTA FALCONS 3-2         October        15, 8:30 PM        | Turf of Georgia Dome 1-4

RECENT FORM TEAM SU ATS OU OFF DEF NY Giants 3-2 3-2 3-2 24.6 24.8 Atlanta 1-4 3-2 2-3 13.8 20.0

SMART CHART NYG   TEAM   ATL 24.6 PTS FOR   13.8 24.8   PTS AGNST 20.0 -0.2 DIFF.   -6.2 215.8 PASS YDS   199.8 117.0 RUSH YDS   91.6 219.4   PASS D 204.0 95.2 RUSH D   121.2 0.2 TO DIFF   -0.4

INJURIES NEW YORK PLAYER POS DESCRIPTION Steve Smith WR Out Week 6 (shoulder) Plaxico Burress WR Questionable Week 6 (ankle) Osi Umenyiora DE Questionable Week 6 (knee) Derrick Ward RB Questionable Week 6 (ankle) ATLANTA PLAYER POS DESCRIPTION Stephen Nicholas LB Out Week 6 (ankle) Todd Weiner T Out Week 6 (knee) Jonathan Babineaux DT Questionable Week 6 (knee) Keith Brooking LB Questionable Week 6 (hamstring) Roderick Coleman DT Questionable Week 6 (knee) Byron Leftwich QB Questionable Week 6 (ankle) Dwayne Blakley TE Probable Week 6 (pectoral) Chris Crocker S Probable Week 6 (knee) Alge Crumpler TE Probable Week 6 (knee/ankle) Grady Jackson DT Probable Week 6 (back) Lewis Sanders CB Probable Week 6 (shoulder)

BETTING TRENDS NEW YORK NY Giants are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games NY Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on the road NY Giants are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games when playing Atlanta NY Giants are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games when playing Atlanta The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the NY Giants last 5 games when playing Atlanta NY Giants are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing on the road against Atlanta ATLANTA Atlanta is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Atlanta's last 14 games Atlanta is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home Atlanta is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home Atlanta is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games when playing NY Giants Atlanta is 4-2 SU in their last 6 games when playing NY Giants The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing NY Giants Atlanta is 0-5 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against NY Giants

HEAD TO HEAD SUMMARY TEAM SU ATS OU PTS RYDS YPR PA PC% PYDS TOTY TO NY Giants 2-4 2-4 1-5 14.5 138.2 4.9 34.0 57.4 169.8 308.0 2.5 Atlanta 4-2 4-2 1-5 18.7 141.3 5.0 28.3 53.5 164.2 305.5 1.2 HEAD TO HEAD DETAIL DATE DAY AWAY PTS HOME PTS T/G HOMELINE ATS RY PY TY TO RY PY TY TO 10/15/2006 Sun NYG 27 ATL 14 T -3/41½ NYG/U 259 165 424 2 223 106 329 2 11/21/2004 Sun ATL 14 NYG 10 T 3/40 ATL/U 201 97 298 0 119 158 277 2 11/09/2003 Sun ATL 27 NYG 7 T -11½/41 ATL/U 216 58 274 0 124 196 320 4 10/13/2002 Sun ATL 17 NYG 10 G -5/34½ ATL/U 67 246 313 0 113 193 306 2 10/08/2000 Sun NYG 13 ATL 6 T 2/41½ NYG/U 104 151 255 2 13 225 238 3 10/11/1998 Sun ATL 34 NYG 20 T -1½/38½ ATL/O 128 253 381 2 110 156 266 3

TEAMS LAST 5 GAMES
NEW YORK | GAME LOGS
DATE	DAY	OPPONENT	SCORE	SU	LINE	ATS	ORY	OPY	OTY	DRY	DPY	DTY	TO +/-
10/07/2007	Sun	NYJ	35-24	W	-4/40½	W/O	188	186	374	55	222	277	1
09/30/2007	Sun	PHI	16-3	W	2½/47	W/U	83	129	212	114	76	190	0
09/23/2007	Sun	at WAS	24-17	W	3½/42½	W/U	96	219	315	82	178	260	-2
09/16/2007	Sun	GB	13-35	L	-2½/39½	L/O	94	231	325	83	285	368	-1
09/09/2007	Sun	at DAL	35-45	L	6½/44½	L/O	124	314	438	142	336	478	1
ATLANTA | GAME LOGS
DATE	DAY	OPPONENT	SCORE	SU	LINE	ATS	ORY	OPY	OTY	DRY	DPY	DTY	TO +/-
10/07/2007	Sun	at TEN	13-20	L	7½/41	W/U	99	99	198	92	157	249	3
09/30/2007	Sun	HOU	26-16	W	2½/39½	W/O	90	214	304	87	311	398	2
09/23/2007	Sun	CAR	20-27	L	4/38½	L/O	91	351	442	175	138	313	-2
09/16/2007	Sun	at JAC	7-13	L	10/34½	W/U	82	166	248	113	251	364	0
09/09/2007	Sun	at MIN	3-24	L	3/35½	L/U	96	169	265	139	163	302	-1

SUPERGRID
CLICK HERE FOR FURTHER BREAKDOWN		RANK		RANK
New York's Overall Scoring vs Atlanta's Overall Defense	24.6	7	20.0	16
New York's Road Passing vs Atlanta's Home Defense	266.5	6	224.5	22
New York's Road Rushing vs Atlanta's Home Defense	110.0	13	131.0	24
Atlanta's Overall Scoring vs New York's Overall Defense	13.8	29	24.8	22
Atlanta's Home Passing vs New York's Road Passing Defense	282.5	4	257.0	26
Atlanta's Home Rushing vs New York's Road Rushing Defense	90.5	22	112.0	14

TEAM WEATHER AND NEWS NEW YORK Game Logs | NJ.com ATLANTA Game Logs | Atlanta Journal Constitution Atlanta, GA   Get the 10 day forecast   Hurricane Central   Interstate Forecast   Local Festivals 77 °F Sunny Feels Like: 77°F Humidity: 39% Wind:  SSE at 12 mph Free Weather Alerts All league weather and news

POWER STATS YARDS PER POINT TEAM OFF DEF DIFF New York 13.5 12.7 0.8 Atlanta 21.1 16.3 4.9 YARDS PER PASS TEAM OFF DEF DIFF New York 6.3 6.7 -0.4 Atlanta 6.1 7.1 -1.0 YARDS PER RUSH TEAM OFF DEF DIFF New York 4.4 3.6 0.8 Atlanta 3.7 4.0 -0.3

NFL Betting Free Picks – Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans

by Eric Williams

The Miami Dolphins (0-4 SU, 0-2-2 ATS, 3-1 O/U) are an absolute disgrace at the moment and look like they could take another step or two backwards before the NFL betting season is over. Miami is ranked 17th in overall offense but has watched its normally stellar defense fall all the way to 22nd in the league overall. 37-year-old starting quarterback Trent Green looks like he is two steps away from retirement.

The Houston Texans (2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS, 3-1 O/U) are off to a surprising start under new quarterback Matt Schaub even if they did lose to the Atlanta Falcons 26-16 last week. Houston is also in the process of building one of the best defensive lines in the game and is currently ranked 13th in the league in overall defense. Houston is also ranked 16th in overall offense.

Here is a look at tonight’s key trends followed by my Free NFL Betting Picks:

Key Dolphins Trends

The Dolphins are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games following a double-digit loss at home.

The Dolphins are 8-3-1 ATS in their last twelve games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.

The Dolphins are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

Key Texans Trends

The Texans are 5-0 ATS in their last five games on Grass.

The Texans are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

The Texans are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.

Key Totals Trends

The Under is 5-0-1 in Dolphins last six games in Week Five.

The Over is 12-2 in Dolphins last 14 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.

The Over is 5-1 in Texans last six vs. a team with a losing record.

The Over is 9-2 in Texans last eleven games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

Key Head-to-Head Trends

No trends available.

Analysis: The Dolphins should go down in flames once again with the Texans needing this win badly after losing last Sunday. Take the Texans – and their defensive line – to pound and pressure Green into a long afternoon that results in a Texans win and cover.

NFL Free Picks: Texans 21 Dolphins 14

01:00 PM EST NFL Odds

Miami Dolphins +6½ -110

Houston Texans -6½ -110

Under 43½ -110

Over 43½ -110