Well, after nearly five months of football, the biggest and most important game of the season is finally here.
That’s right BetUS.com NFL bettors, Super Bowl XXLII
is finally here and the good news for bettors is that, after suffering
through an absolutely mediocre ATS season, I have been on absolute fire
since the start of the postseason, going a solid 7-1-1 ATS in my
postseason selections, with several excellent picks the way, like the New York Giants’ outright victories over the Dallas Cowboys in their NFC Divisional showdown, followed by their Green Bay Packers
in their NFC Championship tilt on Jan. 13 despite the majority of my
handicapping brethren going with the Pack to win outright if not
necessarily covering the 7.5-point spread that day.
Now, no one really cares abut past picks – unless they can help in the future that is.
With that in mind, I will once again – for the final time this NFL
postseason – put BetUS.com’s beloved NFL bettors on the right path to a
winning wager with my 2008 Super Bowl selection.
Since the game is quickly approaching, I’ll cut the chit-chat short and get right to the point.
Now, a lot of people may want to throw out of lot of meaningless
statistics heading into this contest, but for me, this pick is
extremely simple.
Looking at both teams and their recent performances, (including
their hook up in their regular season finale), and I think it’s easy to
come to the conclusion that, not only will the New York Giants, (13-6
SU, 13-6 ATS, 9-10 O/U) cover the 11½-point spread in this contest, but
that they could actually beat the vaunted New England Patriots, (18-0 SU, 10-8 ATS, 11-6-1 O/U) outright.
Heck, I’ll go on record right now and say that if Patriots
quarterback Tom Brady has a similar game to the 21-for-33, 209-yard,
two-touchdown, three-interception performance he unleashed on the San Diego Chargers in the AFC Championship game, that the Patriots will undeniably lose their first Super Bowl under Bill Belichick.
While the same could very well be said for Giants quarterback Eli
Manning, the fact of the matter is that Manning and the Giants are
playing their best football of the season coming into this contest
while the Patriots looked invincible in the regular season’s early
going but have shown more chinks in their armor down the stretch than
at any time this season.
Once again, without getting into meaningless statistics, I believe
this game will boil down to one crucial factor – winning the turnover
battle.
I fully believe that, had the Chargers been able to capitalize on
the Patriots’ many mistakes two weeks ago, they, and not the Patriots
would be playing in this Super Bowl.
However, with injuries to quarterback Philip Rivers, league-leading
rusher LaDainian Tomlinson and all-pro tight end Antonio Gates, the
Chargers’ offense was a shell of itself as they were forced into field
goal after field goal in losing 21-12 to the Patriots.
Here is a look at the game’s Key Trends, followed by my NFL Superbowl Free Pick.
Key Giants Trends
The Giants are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
The Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on grass.
The Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Key Patriots Trends
The Patriots are 36-16-1 ATS in their last 53 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
The Patriots are 13-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
The Patriots are 40-19-3 ATS in their last 62 games on grass.
Key Totals Trends
The Under is 4-1 in Giants last 5 playoff games.
The Under is 5-2 in Giants last 7 games on grass.
The Over is 4-0 in Patriots last 4 games on grass.
The Under is 4-1-1 in Patriots last 6 games following a S.U. win.
Key Head-to-Head Trends
None Available
Analysis: I know the Patriots have won three Super
Bowl titles under Belichick, but I am genuinely amazed that the point
spread for this contest is as high as it is, especially considering the
stellar brand of football the Giants have displayed over the last five
weeks. While I certainly respect the Patriots and their
accomplishments, I am certain the Giants will cover the spread – unless
Eli Manning reverts back into his old, inconsistent self and throws two
or three interceptions. Since Manning has legitimately looked like a
quarterback that can lead his team to a Super Bowl title I his last
four games, I see no reason to think he’ll come up with a stinker in
this game. Take the Giants and the points NFL bettors
and you’ll be happy you followed my sound advice once again. And hey,
if you feel the need to share your winnings with me, that’s okay too.
NFL Free Pick: Giants +11½ Points/Under 53 ½ Total Points
