Football Betting

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns Prop Bets

 
Game-day: 12/10/2009
Kick-off: 8:20 pm EST

Sometimes just betting a team to cover or beat a spread or on the total isn’t enough for NFL betting fans. Sometimes, throwing a few bucks on a prop bet or two makes for not only a more exciting game but could lead to more profits than just going after a game straight-up.

Tonight the Pittsburgh Steelers, reeling after 4 straight losses, take on the Cleveland Browns as 10 point favorites. That’s an interesting bet, but so are some of these props. Let’s take a look at the best prop wagers in tonight’s Steelers vs. Browns game.

Best Prop Bets when Pitt takes on Cleveland Tonight

First Score of the Game

TD -125

Any other -105

Analysis: The Cleveland Browns are ranked 32nd in the NFL in total offense. They average only 12 points per game. The Pittsburgh Steelers have serious issues in the red zone, but should be able to move the ball against Cleveland which is why betting on the TD involves more investment with this prop. I’ll go for more profit and bet that either the Browns or the Steelers put up a field goal first.

Winning Pick: Any other -105

Score in Last Two Minutes of the 1st Half

Yes -260

No +200

Analysis: This is strictly a wager on the NFL odds. How many bad things can happen in the last two minutes of the half? Mismanagement on part of either Pitt QB Ben Roethlisberger or Cleveland QB Brady Quinn? A blocked field goal? A field goal attempt at 50 yards that fails? A simple defensive struggle for two minutes? Three to four punts between two rival teams? I’m talking myself into this, but why not? Rarely do you get such great odds, 2 to 1, on something that could happen almost 50% of the time. Pull the trigger and go for the money, man!

Winning Pick: No +200

Score in 1st 7 ½ Minutes

Yes -105

No -125

Analysis: I don’t get the odds on this bet. I mean, the Steelers are favored by 10 freaking points! 7 ½ minutes is a very long time. Shouldn’t the Steelers put up a field goal, at least, within those 7 ½ minutes? If not the Steelers, then shouldn’t the Browns who are better with Brady Quinn at QB than Derek Anderson?

Sure, the last time these two teams met a single point wasn’t put on the board until 11:26 of the second quarter but that was then and this is now. Quinn will move the ball against the Steelers’ D and Big Ben will get the Steelers in position for at least a field goal within the first 7 ½ minutes.

Winning Pick: Yes -105

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns Point Spread Winner

Steelers vs. Browns (+10)
(O/U) 36
Thursday, December 10 8:00 PM ET

Jeez, pro football betting fanatics. Talk about a Super Bowl hangover!

While no one expected it, the Pittsburgh Steelers (6-6 SU, 4-8 ATS, 7-5 O/U) are suffering immensely from the after effects of winning last season’s league championship,

Losers of four consecutive games, the Steelers enter their Week 14 matchup against the Cleveland Browns (1-11 SU, 6-6 ATS, 5-7 O/U) totally desperate for a victory as they seek to keep their fading playoff hopes alive this season.

Let’s take a look at both ballclubs, followed by my in-depth analysis and NFL expert picks.

Pittsburgh 411

• Steelers are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games overall.
• Steelers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite.
• Steelers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games.

The Steelers have looked absolutely abysmal in dropping each of their last four games, a streak no one saw coming after Pittsburgh had won its previous five games.

The Steelers lost to Oakland 27-24 in Week 13 and made Raiders quarterback Bruce Gradkowski look like the second coming of Joe Montana as Oakland’s starter completed 20 of 33 passes for a whopping 308 yards and three TD’s.

Pittsburgh failed to cover the NFL point spread for pro football betting backers as a 14.5-point home favorite despite getting 103 rushing yards and one score on 20 carries from Rashard Mendenhall and 149 receiving yards and one score on eight catches from Santonio Holmes.

To make matters even worse for NFL gamblers, the Steelers have gone a dismal 1-3 against the spread (ATS) during the span and just 4-6 ATS over its last 10 games overall.

Cleveland 411

• Browns are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC.
• Browns are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
• Browns are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 home games.

While the Browns haven’t won since beating the Buffalo Bills 6-3 in Week 5, Cleveland has looked pretty darned good on offense in two of the last three weeks under the direction of quarterback Brady Quinn.

Cleveland gave everything they had in its 30-23 home loss to San Diego in Week 13, but easily covered the NFL point spread for backers as a 13.5-point home underdog in the loss.

Quinn completed 25 of 45 passes for 271 yards with three touchdowns in the loss while Jerome Harrison caught seven passes for 62 yards with two touchdowns.

Cleveland has covered the NFL moneyline for pro football betting enthusiasts in three consecutive games while going an impressive 6-4 ATS over its last 10 games overall.

Head-to-Head Trends

• Steelers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Cleveland.
• Steelers are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 meetings.
• Over is 6-2-1 in the last 9 meetings.
• Favorite is 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings.

Analysis: The Pittsburgh Steelers can’t sink any lower than they already have can they? Uh, yeah, they can, but at least not in this game they won’t.

I like the Steelers to win this game and cover the NFK moneyline if for no other reason than the fact that they will be in all-out desperation mode against the Browns.

Head coach Mike Tomlin has already drilled his team over its poor performances and how the Steelers can’t afford to lose another game to a lesser opponent if they hope to avoid missing out on the playoffs altogether this season.

Despite their dismal team trends, Pittsburgh has pretty much owned the Browns in their head-to-head matchups, going a blistering 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 meetings and 4-1-1 ATS in their last six meetings in Cleveland.

Another factor working in Pittsburgh’s favor is the fact that the favorite in this series has gone a consistent 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings between these teams.

With the Over going 6-2-1 in the last nine meetings between these teams and the Browns playing very well on offense, I also like the Over to cash in for pro football betting backers in this matchup.

Take the Steelers to cover and the Over in this one!

NFL Free Picks: Steelers -10 Points/Over 36 Total Points

Steelers vs Browns Pointspread Free Pick

Thursday, December 10th
Cleveland Browns Stadium, Cleveland, OH – 8:20 PM ET

NFL Point Spread: Steelers -10, O/U: 36

Amazingly enough, the Cleveland Browns had a better week than the defending (not-for-long) Super Bowl champions. No, Cleveland didn’t win a game (let’s be reasonable here!), but the Browns played San Diego gallantly before bowing to the Chargers, 30-23. The Steelers have no excuse for the way they’re pursuing a second straight Vince Lombardi Trophy. Mike Tomlin’s team lost its fourth consecutive game this past Sunday, falling 27-24 to the woeful Oakland Raiders. What makes Pittsburgh’s extended skid so remarkable is the fact that two of the Steelers’ four losses have come to AFC West doormats, the Raiders and the Kansas City Chiefs. Even more amazing is the fact that Pittsburgh lost to Oakland by giving up three fourth-quarter touchdowns to quarterback Bruce Gradkowski.   

NFL Handicapping: What The Steelers Have To Do To Win 

Show some pride. Injuries to quarterback Ben Roethlisberger have robbed Pittsburgh of offensive continuity, but this loss to Oakland was the product of a defensive meltdown. Big Ben did his part by hitting 18-of-24 passes for 278 yards, two touchdowns, and only one interception, but a defense that has been the backbone of the Steeler franchise caved in against the Raiders on home turf. Conceding 21 fourth-quarter points and three go-ahead touchdowns is beyond absurd for a team of Pittsburgh’s caliber; similarly, allowing 27 points to the inept Chiefs (on Nov. 22) also shows that an alarming lack of concentration exists throughout this roster. Whatever mental paralysis is affecting coordinator Dick LeBeau’s defense, it has to be expunged with a proud and passionate effort against a Cleveland team that doesn’t belong on the same field. No self-respecting defense should allow more than 14 points to quarterback Brady Quinn’s offense; as long as Big Ben brings a little offense to the ballpark, the Steelers shouldn’t have trouble. Then again, Pittsburgh didn’t figure to struggle against the Raiders, either. Tomlin’s troops have to play as though they’re broke and searching for their next meal. Otherwise, they could stumble again. 

NFL Handicapping: What The Browns Have To Do To Win 

Keep pushing. Cleveland didn’t have the weapons San Diego possessed, but a team that has shown its displeasure with head coach Eric Mangini acted like it cared more about winning this past weekend. Instead of tanking and throwing their unpopular coach under the bus, the members of the Browns roster fought to the bitter end against the Chargers, scoring 16 fourth-quarter points even though the outlook was grim all the while. If Cleveland can stay in this game through the first three quarters, the Steelers have shown that they can and will give up the ghost in the fourth quarter. The Browns played hard against San Diego because they respected their opponent and looked at the game as a chance to showcase themselves. Despite a 1-11 record, Cleveland has been deceptively competitive in most of its division games. With one more forceful charge against Pittsburgh, the Browns could cause the mentally weak champions to crack at crunch time. 

NFL Handicapping: Outlook & Pick

The Browns actually do have a decent chance of keeping this game close. Cleveland’s allowed no more than 16 points in its last two AFC North games (against Baltimore on Nov. 16 and at Cincinnati on Nov. 29), so it stands to reason that in a home night game, Mangini’s men can keep pace with Pittsburgh for at least two and a half or even three quarters. In the end, however, the only thing more wildly improbable than a four-game Pittsburgh losing streak fueled by the Oakland Raiders is for that downward spiral to reach five games at the hands of the Cleveland Browns. Life is unpredictable, and maybe the underdog can pull another shocker, but at some point, the Steelers should be able to win a game or two. The defending champs can’t lose to a team this horrible, can they?  

NFL Point Spread Pick: Steelers -10
 
NFL Prop Betting: Team To Score First And Score In First Six Minutes 

If Pittsburgh is serious about winning, Roethlisberger should get the ball early in good field position (perhaps after a stop by his defense) and work his way into the red zone. Maybe the Steelers will get just a field goal; they should strike the first blow. 

NFL Prop Betting Pick: Steelers Will Score First, Score In First Six Minutes

Minnesota Vikings at Cleveland Browns Point Spread Free Pick

NFL betting odds: MINNESOTA -4, Total 40

Here are some NFL football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

• MINN has covered one of its last five games
• MINN has won five of its last seven games SU
• MINN has played four of its last five games UNDER the total
• MINN has covered three of its last nine road games
• MINN has won four of its last six road games SU
• MINN has played six of its last eight road games OVER the total
• CLEV has covered one of its last six games
• CLEV has lost its last six games SU
• CLEV has played 15 of its last 22 games UNDER the total
• CLEV has covered ten of its last 15 home games
• CLEV has covered one of its last five home games
• CLEV has lost its last five home games SU
• CLEV has played eight of its last 11 home games UNDER the total

Obviously most of the attention in this one will be devoted to the return of Brett Favre, as the Vikings, who were only 6-10 ATS last year in the NFL betting odds, try to open up their passing game. Undoubtedly Favre will be able to make better use of first-round draft choice Percy Harvin than either of Minnesota's would-be signal-callers, Sage Rosenfels or Tarvaris Jackson. Adrian Peterson looked sharp in the pre-season; in fact, he rushed for the second-most yards out of anyone in the exhibition schedule - 181 yards, including a 75-yarder against Houston.

The Vikings were the league's toughest team to run on in 2008, allowing just 77 yards a game and 3.3 yards a carry. It is reportedly likely that Pat Williams and Kevin Williams, the twin (but not related) defensive tackles who are most responsible for that, will be able to play in the opener, as they would be facing four-game suspensions for violating the league's substance abuse policy, but there is the possibility that a federal judge will hand down a decision this week. If there is a decision that is unexpected, that might slightly affect the NFL betting odds on this one, not to mention some of the fundamental matchup.

The Browns may not be able to run the ball against anybody. Jamal Lewis is still the "every-down" back, and he averaged just 3.6 yards a carry last season., He topped the 1000-yard mark - barely - but could be all worn out by this time. Meanwhile, as of early in the week, new coach Eric Mangini has not handed down the verdict on who is going to be the Browns' starting quarterback, as if to affect NFL betting odds, though everybody thinks it's going to be Brady Quinn

At least we can guess whose face Jared Allen is going to be in.

Even with Favre adding a new element to the situation, the Vikings' dynamic remains essentially the same - they control the line of scrimmage and the running game, on both sides. As long as Favre does not throw the game away as he has done many times in the past, we can see advantages being extracted by this Minnesota who can sufficiently defend Quinn or Derek Anderson. We're going to lay the points with the Vikings, the four-point favorite in the BetUS NFL betting odds.

JAY'S PLAY: MINNESOTA -4 **
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

Philadelphia Eagles vs Cleveland Browns Point Spread Analysis

One of my favorite breakdowns for the Browns vs Eagles game tonight.

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Can Cleveland Browns Cover with 3rd String QB?
Doug Upstone

Since it’s the season for giving, perhaps Philadelphia Eagles should send a package to Cleveland quarterback Ken Dorsey in anticipation of this Sunday’s matchup at Lincoln Financial Field—the biggest bottle of Advil money can buy. Sacked just once, but on the run more than Lincoln Burrows from Fox’s Prison Break, Dorsey completed 22 of 43 passes for 150 yards and one interception in the 28-9 loss last week at Tennessee.

It was his first start since 2005, and more of the same pressure can be expected when the Browns visit the City of Brotherly Love for their third Monday Night game of the year. Philadelphia (7-5-1, 8-5 ATS), coming off a 20-14 road win over the Giants, is just 2-2-1 in the last five games and trying to hang on in the NFC playoff race. What better way to stay on a roll than by beating up on a Cleveland (4-9, 6-6-1 ATS) franchise that’s lost two quarterbacks to season-ending injuries in the last three games and has one win since Halloween?

Defensive coordinator Jim Johnson loves to dial up blitzes from every angle, and the rusty Dorsey will find himself under attack from the rush of Eagles, who are 8-1 ATS off a division game over the last two seasons.

Jamal Lewis is averaging a mere 3.53 yards per carry, and the world should be using Braylon Edwards blood to stop sickness, since he couldn’t catch a cold. let alone a pass this season. He’s dropped nearly half of the attempts thrown his way and has just 45 receptions. The Browns are just 10-22 ATS versus good rushing defenses allowing 3.5 or less rushing yards a carry.

The explosion has been missing from the Cleveland offense (21 points in the last three games), save for Brady Quinn’s first two NFL starts, and expecting it to return in Philadelphia with a third-string quarterback is a bigger longshot than the elves dropping off a 50-inch plasma TV.

Donovan McNabb’s bounced back since his benching in Baltimore, throwing for 451 yards and five touchdowns in two games, but more importantly not a single interception. The real trigger to the offense, however, isn’t McNabb but Brian Westbrook, and he has 333 total yards and six scores of his own since the debacle in Baltimore. The Eagles are 13-4 ATS at home vs. passing defenses permitting a completion percentage of 61 percent or worse in the second half of the season.

The Browns defense, led by D’Qwell Jackson’s 130 tackles, has limited the high-powered Texans, Colts and Titans to just 54 combined points and lost to them all. The defeats are more of a direct reflection of the offense’s struggles at the quarterback position, than any shortcoming on defense most of the time.

BetOnline has Philadelphia as 14-point favorite with a total of 39. This could be difficult number for the Eagles to overcome, given they are 14-5 UNDER as a home favorite since 2006. Double digit home favorites are just 8-14 ATS this season.

Cleveland covers if they go for broke and play smart. Utilize running back Jerome Harrison with Jamal Lewis in the backfield to keep the Eagles defense guessing. Harrison is electrifying runner with a seam and Lewis can lay the lumber to the defensive front. The Cleveland coaches have to set up Dorsey for success with short passes on quick reads, otherwise hello Advil. The Browns secondary gives WAY too much cushion to receivers. The Philly contingent of pass-grabbers is good, certainly not great, play tighter, what do you have to lose as two touchdown underdogs? Cleveland is 7-0 ATS off a road loss over the last two seasons.

Philadelphia covers if they remember they are still in the playoff hunt and the Washington and Dallas are too be played no matter what, focus on this contest, the others will follow. Good teams punish bad teams by taking them out of the game. The Eagles have rushed 81 times in the past two games, the most ever under coach Andy Reid in a two-game span, and came out with victories and covers each time. Man up the Browns shaky receivers and organize a sack party in the Cleveland backfield.

Browns vs Eagles Pointspread Pick

 Philly trying to hang in the playoff race

• WHO: Cleveland Browns vs Philadelphia Eagles (-14)
• WHAT: NFL Football Betting
• WHEN: Monday, December 15 at 8:30 p.m. ET
• WHERE: Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, PA
• KEY STATS: Browns are 10-4 against the spread in last 14 as an underdog of 10.5 to 14 points; Eagles are 7-3 against the spread in last 10 December games
• PICK: Eagles

Browns vs Eagles odds are obviously going to be one-sided. On one hand, you have a Browns team that has clearly lost faith in its head coach and is simply trying to get to the end of the season. On the other hand, you have an Eagles squad that is rejuvenated after consecutive wins against the Arizona Cardinals and New York Giants, two top-tier NFC teams.

Handicappers have probably noticed the difference for the Eagles has been their rushing attack. Entering Week 13, the Eagles were averaging just 23.6 rushing attempts per game. But in the last two weeks, the Eagles have rushed the ball for a total of 81 times.

Each sportsbook and bettor alike also realizes that means the pressure has been taken off of heavily scrutinized quarterback Donovan McNabb. After an ugly two-game stretch where McNabb threw one touchdown, five interceptions and had two fumbles, he’s thrown five score and no turnovers in his past two starts. That helps shift the Browns vs Eagles line in Philly’s favor.

For the Browns, positives have been few and far between this season. While there was a brief quarterback controversy between Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn, both are now injured and neither will be available on Monday night. Journeyman Ken Dorsey will get his second consecutive start.

Online betting sharps watched Cleveland’s offense get off to a sluggish start before Dorsey took over, and it has deteriorated even more now. Dorsey has completed just 47.8 percent of his passes for a paltry 3.3 yards-per-pass. He’s also thrown two interceptions and no touchdowns since taking over.

With running back Jamal Lewis averaging 3.5 yards per carry this season, the second-lowest average of his career, and the defense ranking 27th overall, there won’t be much help for Dorsey.

It’s hard to side with the Browns for your Browns vs Eagles pick. They have completed only 29 plays of 20 yards or longer, which is a bad omen against a defense that just doesn’t give up long, methodical drives. That’s a big reason the Browns vs Eagles spread has crept so wide.

STAN’S PICK: Look for the Eagles to confuse, sack and harass Dorsey all night long as they roll in a relatively easy win. If you’re going to bet online, bet on Philadelphia, which needs a win to keep its playoffs alive.

Cleveland Browns vs. Tennessee Titans Preview

The Cleveland Browns and the Tennessee Titans will both be gunning for a victory on Sunday when they meet at LP Field.

Oddsmakers currently have the Titans listed as 14½-point favorites versus the Browns, while the game's total is sitting at 36½.

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The Browns lost to Indianapolis 10-6 as a 4.5-point underdog last week. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (43.5).

Derek Anderson threw for 110 yards with no touchdowns for Cleveland and Jamal Lewis had 24 carries for 77 rushing yards in the loss.

The Titans handed Detroit their 12th straight loss with a 47-10 pounding of the Lions in Week 13. The Titans covered the 11-point spread, and the day's 57 points sailed OVER the posted total of 44.

Chris Johnson rushed for 125 yards with two touchdowns, and LenDale White also ran for two touchdowns in that win.

Current streak:
Cleveland has lost 2 straight games.

Team records:
Cleveland: 4-8 SU, 7-5 ATS
Tennessee: 11-1 SU, 10-1-1 ATS

Cleveland most recently:

1. When playing in December are 4-6
2. When playing on grass are 3-7
3. After being outgained are 5-5
4. When playing outside the division are 5-5

Tennessee most recently:

1. When playing in December are 8-2
2. When playing on grass are 8-2
3. After outgaining opponent are 6-4
4. When playing outside the division are 8-2

A few trends to consider:

• Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
• The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cleveland's last 8 games on the road
• The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Cleveland's last 18 games
• Cleveland is 16-7 ATS in its last 23 games
• Tennessee is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games
• Tennessee is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
• Tennessee is 10-1-1 ATS in its last 12 games
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games at home

Next up:
Cleveland at Philadelphia, Monday, December 15
Tennessee at Houston, Sunday, December 14

Cleveland Browns vs Houston Texans Point Spread Free Pick

CLEVELAND -3, Total 50.5

The Cleveland Browns (4-6 SU, 6-4 ATS), who are still desperately trying to stay in the running for a playoff spot, will play host to the Houston Texans (3-7 SU, 4-6 ATS), who have essentially fallen out of the running, in NFL sports betting action that is set to get underway at 1 PM ET on Sunday at Cleveland Browns Stadium (natural turf).

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Sunday, November 23

NOTABLE STAT: Houston has given up 28.7 points per game (30th in NFL)

KEY NFL FOOTBALL BETTING TREND: Texans have played 11 of last 12 games over the total

Here are some NFL football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

• HOU has covered two of its last six games
• HOU has lost seven of its last ten games SU
• HOU has played 11 of its last 12 games OVER the total
• HOU has covered two of its last eight road games
• HOU has lost its last eight road games SU
• HOU has played its last seven road games OVER the total
• CLEV has covered 18 of its last 25 games
• CLEV has played four of its last six games OVER the total
• CLEV has covered nine of its last 12 home games
• CLEV has won eight of its last 12 home games SU
• CLEV has lost four of its last five home games SU

Brady Quinn was just 14 for 36 on Monday night, but he engineered a Cleveland win in his second start as a pro. And he hasn't thrown an interception so far. In this one he'll probably be able to get plenty of assistance from Jamal Lewis (658 yards) who should find some room navigating through Houston's defensive front, which has shown itself to be vulnerable against the run.

Braylon Edwards is an enigma, because his dropped passes keep piling up, but when he's able to hold onto them he's effective (16.5 yards per catch). And the Browns have done a pretty good job of protecting the passer; only nine sacks have been allowed, and Quinn has been dumped only one time. So Mario Williams, who's averaged more than a sack a game over the last calendar year, could be stymied in his advances. All this adds up to a rather inviting offensive scenario for Cleveland.

Sage Rosenfels, as we've chronicled on these pages before, can be productive; even spectacular at times. He's rather accurate (66%), but has been prone to interceptions (seven this year, in limited action). The Texans have started to do what they set out to do when the season started, which is develop a running game. Apparently NFL scouts didn't give Steve Slaton a good chance to be an every-down back, but the rookie from West Virginia has responded. His 156 yards against the Colts last week was a career high, and he's now averaging 5.1 yards a carry (701 yards total).

Houston has played 11 of its last 12 games over the total. And we just don't see any reason to buck that trend here. So it's OVER 50.5 points, in the BetUS NFL pro football betting odds.

JAY'S PLAY: OVER 50.5 ***

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

Buffalo Bills vs Cleveland Browns Point Spread Free Pick

NFL Betting Line: Buffalo -4 (42.5)

The Brady Quinn era started off with a thud, though the kid from Notre Dame put up some great numbers. It wasn’t his fault that the Browns lost to the Broncos either – I blame Kellen Winslow’s Swiss cheese hands. Cleveland has gone 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games on the road and visit the Buffalo Bills, who have jeopardized a startling 4-0 star t with a recent 1-4 SU record.

Now the Bills are facing a potential elimination from Wildcard contention. The Jets are primed to takeover the AFC East, with the Patriots closely behind. Unless Buffalo can rally from three consecutive losses to AFC East opponents, their season is all but done. Trent Edwards is known for his fourth quarter comebacks. How is his second-half of the season resilience?

NFL Betting Trends

• -Cleveland is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games
• -Cleveland is 8-17 SU in their last 23 games on the road
• -Buffalos is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games
• -Buffalo is 1-4 SU in their last 5 games
• -total has gone OVER in 6-of-8 at home for Buffalo

It’s far too early to call Brady Quinn the savior of Cleveland. He found some very nice rhythm with Kellen Winslow and Braylon, but let’s not forget that he was going up against one of the worst defenses in the league by playing Denver. Buffalo’s home passing defense ranks fifth in the NFL with 177.0 passing yards allowed. To match that offensively, they have the sixth best passing offense with 254.3 passing yards gained at Ralph Wilson. For Brady to prove how good he is, he’ll not only have to match a seasoned Trent Edwards, he’ll have to carve up a secondary blood thirsty to challenge him.

Cleveland Browns (3-6) vs. Buffalo Bills (5-4)

Monday, November 17th --- Ralph Wilson Stadium, Buffalo --- 8:30pm EST

NFL Betting Line: Buffalo -4 (42.5)

For those of you living out East, then you know how cold it’s starting to get. That’s not the best of news when it comes to this game in the OVER. I’d take the UNDER if I were you. Brady will be frustrated by a stiff Buffalo defense that will pressure him to release before he wants to, and perhaps turn the ball over when he least expects to.

Buffalo is a balanced team and Trent Edwards got torched by three teams who have seen him play more than anyone else. Cleveland doesn’t have as much experience against the Stanford graduate, and while it’s tempting to ride the Buffalo bandwagon in to the dirt, my betting intuition leads me to believe that the defense is going to grab the reigns and turn this caravan around. The race to the AFC Wildcard is on for Buffalo…and they’re going to have to essentially win out to keep pace. What better place to prove yourself then under the sweltering lights of prime time against Pretty Boy himself.

NFL Free Pick: Buffalo -4 (UNDER)

Cleveland Browns vs Buffalo Bills Pointspread Free Pick

Cleveland Browns +5 -110 +200 O 42 ½ -110

Buffalo Bills -5 -110 -240 U 42 ½ -110

The Cleveland Browns, quitters in the eyes of NFL betting fans, travel to Buffalo to take on a Bills team that has fallen on hard times. Buffalo started this NFL season by going 4 and 0 straight-up and 4 and 1 against the BetUS online wagering spread. That was music to the ears of sports betting fans, but look at what has happened since. The Bills are now 5 and 4 straight-up and 4 and 5 against the BetUS online wagering spread. How bad is that? There doesn’t appear to be a reason why the wheels have fallen off in Buffalo. The Bills still have a terrific running back in Marshawn Lynch and a decent quarterback in Trent Edwards. It just doesn’t make sense.

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The Cleveland Browns, on the other hand, make plenty of sense. They just aren’t very good. I believe it’s time that football betting fans admit that the Browns are a bad team. Sure, they have a lot of weapons on both offense and defense, but that hasn’t translated into victories either straight-up or against the BetUS online wagering spread. At this point in the season the Browns are 3 and 6 straight-up and 5 and 4 against the BetUS online betting spread. They do have a winning margin against the spread, but I still have trouble endorsing these guys.

Here are a few online wagering trends that might help us find a good online bet in this game.

• The Cleveland Browns are 13 and 3 against the spread in their last 16 games versus a team with a winning record.
• The Over is 9-3-1 in the Cleveland Browns last 13 games versus a team with a winning record.
• The Buffalo Bills are 1 and 4 against the spread in their last 5 games overall.
• The Over is 6-1-1 in the Buffalo Bills last 8 home games.

The Bills and Browns are almost mirror teams of each other except the Bills have a better defense. The Browns should play much better in this game after every football fan in the country accused them of giving up in their loss to the Denver Broncos last week.

But it might not matter because the Bills are a more consistent team. With that being written, I sort of have to go with the Cleveland Browns in this one. The Bills haven’t covered a spread in a long time.

I don’t believe they have enough in the tank to cover 5 points. I just don’t see it. I’ll be placing an online bet on the Cleveland Browns to beat the 5 points BetUS online sportsbook betting spread.