NBA Point Spread

December 17, 2008

Denver Nuggets vs Houston Rockets Pointspread Free Pick

The Houston Rockets (15-9 SU, 12-12 ATS, 14-10 O/U) have failed to find their new identity so far this season after acquiring combustible forward Ron Artest in an offseason transaction.

The streaking Denver Nuggets (16-7 SU, 14-8-1 ATS, 13-10 O/U) have almost literally taken off since getting former NBA Finals MVP, Chauncey Billups in a trade for Allen Iverson earlier this season.

The Rockets will look to get back in the win column while bringing the Nuggets’ four-game winning streak to an emphatic end when they host Denver at the Toyota Center tonight.

Houston had plans on competing for the Western Conference title after getting Artest but has struggled while battling injuries and inconsistency.

The Rockets are coming off a disheartening 95-82 loss to the Los Angeles Clippers on Saturday, failing to cover the spread for BetUS NBA sports betting backers as a 4-point home favorite in the BetUS Sportsbook.

The Rockets, who got a team-high 24 points from center Yao Ming and 19 points from Tracy McGrady and were outscored 50-34 in the second half

"Missing the shots that we did really bogged us down," forward Shane Battier told the Rockets' official Web site. "We let it affect our movement. Games like this, when we don't move the ball and move ourselves, we normally lose."

The Nuggets have been firing on all cylinders with Billups on board and enter tonight’s matchup coming off a solid 98-88 smackdown of the Dallas Mavericks on Monday, covering the spread for backers as a 2.5-point road underdog with room to spare.

Denver got a team-high 25 points from shooting guard J.R. Smith, 23 points from Carmelo Anthony and 15 points and eight assists from Billups.

Now 16-4 with Billups leading the way, the Nuggets have been playing stellar basketball recently, averaging 109.9 points and shooting 49.9 percent from the field while winning nine of their last 11 games.

Billups’ biggest contributions however, have been in helping the Nuggets learn how to defend.

"(Defense) was our main focus coming in," said Billups. "We knew coming in that this team is as good an offensive team as you'll find, so us being locked in and tuned into the game plan was important. We were able to contest all their shots."

Here is a look at tonight’s key betting trends, followed by my in-depth analysis and NBA Free Pick:

  • Denver is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
  • Denver is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games when playing on the road against Houston
  • Denver is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
  • Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing at home against Denver
  • Houston is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against Denver
  • The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Houston's last 17 games at home

NBA Odds

  • Denver Nuggets +3 -110
  • Houston Rockets -3 -110
  • Over 200½ -110
  • Under 200½ -110

Analysis: Maybe it’s me but the way the Denver Nuggets are playing, not to mention the inconsistency the Houston Rockets have displayed all season, leads me to believe that, not only are the Nuggets going to cover the spread, but likely win outright.

Take the new-look Denver Nuggets to cover.

NBA Free Picks: Denver +3 Points/Over 200½ Total Points

December 16, 2008

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Los Angeles Clippers Pointspread Free Pick

L.A. CLIPPERS -4.5, Total 199

The Oklahoma City Thunder (2-23 SU, 14-11 ATS) can't seem to win, no matter who is at the helm. On Tuesday night they will encounter the Los Angeles Clippers (6-17 SU, 9-14 ATS), who are showing signs of life, in NBA pro basketball sports betting action that is scheduled to get underway at 8 PM ET at the Ford Center in Oklahoma City.

BetUS NBA Betting Odds: L.A. CLIPPERS -4.5, Total 199

Here are some of the NBA pro basketball sports betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

  • * LA has covered five of its last seven games
  • * LA has lost 19 of its last 25 games SU
  • * LA has played four of its last five games UNDER the total
  • * LA has covered four of its last five road games
  • * LA has lost 19 of its last 23 road games SU
  • * OKC has covered seven of its last nine games
  • * OKC has lost its last seven games SU
  • * OKC has played 13 of its last 19 games OVER the total
  • * OKC has covered two of its last eight home games
  • * OKC has lost its last nine home games SU

Also....

  • * LA has covered six of the last seven meetings
  • * LA has won five of the last seven meetings SU
  • * Six of the last eight meetings have gone UNDER the total
  • * LA has covered eight of the last nine meetings as the road team
  • * LA has won five of the last seven meetings SU as the road team
  • * OKC has had the rebounding edge in four of the last six meetings

You know, it's hard to talk about the Thunder being such a sad sight because the team has been almost competitive lately. There is no shame in losing road games to Dallas by 4, San Antonio by 5, Miami by 6, even Orlando by 9. The problem is that this team can not seem to convert at home, even against bad teams. Last Wednesday Memphis came into the Ford Center and exploded with a furious fourth quarter to take it 108-102, spoiling 28 points by Kevin Durant who had scored 41 points two days before in a losing effort against Golden State.

It's a tough deal when you can't play defense and in the case of the Thunder, which is now guided by Scott Brooks (who replaced the fired P.J. Carlesino), opponents have shot 50% against them in this recent four-game stretch. So Durant, who has averaged almost 30 points over his last four games, can score all the points he wants but if they don’t play D then they’re going to keep loosing. Oklahoma City is covering numbers - seven of the last nine, in fact. But all except one of those covers was on the road. At home they've dropped six of their last eight against the number as an underdog.

The Oklahoma City effort on Monday, fighting back after falling into a 39-19 first-quarter hole, was admirable. Chris Wilcox, who's been sidelined with a dislocated finger, was not expected to return for another few days but insists he'll be ready to play tonight.

The Clippers have been stiffening up on the defensive end, in their last four games the opponent has shot slightly under 40%. Not coincidentally, Mike Dunleavy's team has won three of those four games, including road victories at Minnesota and Portland. Zach Randolph is averaging 26 points a game since coming over in the trade with the Knicks, and hasn't disrupted anything in the locker room just yet. Marcus Camby has tallied 26 blocked shots in his last six games.

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