No. 1 seeds should blast its way through the opening round in the
Big Dance as they face the No. 16's. But that's not always the case.
Detecting early upsets and Cinderellas is crucial to a successful
bracket and NCAA basketball betting.
Never in NCAA tournament history has all four No. 1 seeds reached
the Final Four. But this could be the year, and considering the
strength of each top-seed, it's tempting to select each to dance in San
Antonio in this year's Final Four.
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But to get a leg up on your bracket building brethrens you have to
take a risk and have a powerhouse going down. A No. 1 that has the
potential to be sent home early is the Kansas Jayhawks (31-3).
Kansas has lost in the first round in two of the past three
tournaments. The Jayhawks lost as a No. 3 seed (to Bucknell) in 2005
and as a No. 4 (to Bradley) last season. However, they'll have history
on their side this year: A No. 1 seed has never lost in the first round.
In addition to busting brackets early, the Jayhawks are just 2-5 ATS
(against the spread) in their last seven NCAA tournament games.
BetUS NCAA basketball odds list Kansas the hefty 22½-point favorites in the first round against No. 16 Portland St.
on Thursday, but that could be another indicator they may not be able
to play role as ugly Step-Sister, because they are 1-4 ATS in their
last five games as a favorite of 13-points or higher.
The Jayhawks won’t have to go far for its first game in Omaha but
they are a money-shredding 3-15 ATS in their last 18 Thursday games.
And,
Portland St. is 4-0-1 ATS in their last five neutral site games as an underdog.
Cinderella is only a fairy tale and in the end it's almost always
the ugly Step-Sister cutting down the nets. But, finding the shockers
is another key to a money-making bracket and profitable March if you
bet on NCAA basketball.
A Cinderella that may wear the glass slippers this season is the George Mason Patriots (+6½).
Two years ago, the Patriots turned a second chance into the chance of a
lifetime, using an at-large berth into the NCAA tournament as the
impetus for a magical three weeks, a stunning run that took them all
the way to the national semifinals.
George Mason still has two players who were starters on the
Cinderella Final Four team of two years ago, forward Will Thomas and
guard Folarin Campbell. They are the leading scorers for the Patriots.
Campbell, a sophomore when he led George Mason is scoring in the
tournament two years ago, said the key for this team is not trying to
duplicate that magic.
George Mason are the Colonial Conference champions and are 23-10 as
the No. 12 seed in the East. They play No. 5 Notre Dame (-6½) in the
opener on Thursday, and would battle the winner of the Washington St. Cougars and Winthrop Eagles game in the second round.
- Patriots are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 NCAA tournament games.
- Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 NCAA tournament games as an underdog.
- Patriots are 16-5-2 ATS in their last 23 Thursday games.
The glass slippers could also fit the Horizon League championship
Butler Bulldogs (-4). Butler earned an automatic bid in the NCAA
tournament for the first time since 2001.
Butler has a terrific backcourt of Mike Green and A.J. Graves, who
helped push their team to a 29-3 record and No. 7 seed in the East
bracket. The Bulldogs take on the South Alabama Jaguars (+4) in the opening round on Friday. If Butler gets past the Jags they'll take on the winner of the Tennessee Volunteers and American Eagles meeting.
- Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 NCAA tournament games.
- Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games.
- Bulldogs are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 non-conference games.
- Bulldogs are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 Friday games.
With everything said, and with thoughts of your bracket in tow,
don’t bank to heavily in Cinderellas but don't leave them out all
together. They rarely last past the second round. Only three times has
a team seeded worse than No. 8 reached the Final Four (Penn in 1979,
LSU in 1986 and George Mason in 2006) and only three times has someone
worse than a No. 4 won the NCAA title (N.C. State in 1983, Villanova in
1985 and Kansas in 1988).