Football Betting

Patriots vs Colts Betting Analysis

The Super Bowl is the busiest day of the year in NFL betting. Consider this a warmup.

The eyes of the football world will be focused on the RCA Dome this Sunday afternoon. The Indianapolis Colts are hosting the New England Patriots in what could very well be the best game of the season. Both the Colts and the Patriots are undefeated; New England is a pristine 8-0 straight up and against the spread, while Indianapolis is a mere 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS.

The NFL odds at press time had the Patriots pegged as 6.5-point favorites, with a sky-high total of 57. If reports on the online betting patterns are accurate, an overwhelming majority of bettors – around 90 percent – are taking New England and the over. If you like to play the parlays, this would be the natural double; the higher the score, the greater disparity we should see between favorite and underdog.

It’s hard not to like what the Pats have done this season. They have emasculated their opponents by an average score of 41-16. Those opponents include a pair of very good teams in the Dallas Cowboys and Washington Redskins, who are a combined 10-2 SU in games not involving New England. The additions of wide receivers like Randy Moss on offense and linebacker Adalius Thomas on defense have the Pats performing at peak efficiency: 70.6 percent DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average), according to the stat-conscious folks at Football Outsiders. That makes New England the best team the NFL has seen in a dozen years.

The second-best? The Colts, at 57 percent DVOA. The defending champions are nothing to sneeze at, winning games 32-15 on average and putting the boots to three of the Top 10 teams in the league in terms of efficiency: Tampa Bay, Tennessee and Jacksonville. Indianapolis has the top rushing offense in the NFL, with Joseph Addai and Kenton Keith operating behind the best offensive line in the business. All hands are expected to be on deck for this matchup despite several Indy players sitting out Wednesday’s practice.

New England counters with the No. 1 passing offense, as the infusion of wideout talent has allowed QB Tom Brady to put up the biggest numbers of his career by far – including a 136.2 passer rating, eclipsing Peyton Manning’s 102.9 rating. However, both these teams have excellent defenses, with New England third in the league and Indy sixth. This could turn into a run-first slugfest, in which case the Colts have an excellent chance of cashing in for the fourth time in a row against the Pats.

Kick-off is at 4:15 p.m. Eastern on CBS.

NFL Betting Trends Week 9

On Sunday, an NFL quarterback said this: "It's a long season. It's not even November yet, and we've got a lot of room for improvement left."

The statement should've been uttered by Carson Palmer, whose Cincinnati Bengals are mired in last place. The words would also suit Drew Brees' situation with the Saints. After a horrendous 0-4 start, New Orleans has won three straight. Still, as the quote above hints, plenty of work remains for Brees and Co. if they hope to return to the postseason.

In fact, just about every quarterback in the league helms a team that has "lots of room for improvement" and, therefore, reason to say something befitting of the meek. The one signal caller not in that predicament and the one who has no business relating anything that hints at dissatisfaction with the way his team is playing is Tom Brady, especially after the Patriots' 52-7 pasting of the Washington Redskins.

Then again, these Patriots are doing what we think is impossible, so maybe it should be no surprise that it was their quarterback who sounded so dour. Perhaps when you're this good, the only way to keep interested is to nitpick.

In two sentences that some might consider innocuous, Brady told us what New England is about. The Patriots are after perfection, and not only on the record books.

Watching these guys, you can see they’re not content unless each possession, each play goes the way they envisioned.

Through eight weeks, they've dominated everything to do with the NFL, this midseason recap included.

Midseason MVP: It's Brady, of course, but give Randy Moss some votes. He has every opponent paranoid of the big play, and that allows Brady space to operate.

Biggest betting surprise: The domination of the Patriots on the field and against the spread. Right now, most of us remain awestruck when we should be starting to get bored of the act. It's like the Pats look at the point spread each week and think of it as a target rather than a constraint. If they happen to blow away the Colts in Week 9, people will tune in just to see the final score.

Most disappointing team: The Rams were supposed to contend for the NFC West title, and Steven Jackson had his eyes set on 2,000 yards rushing. After eight games, they're winless and only 1-7 ATS – even the Dolphins (0-8 overall, 2-5 ATS) have been a better play.

Most disappointing player: Vince Young, Reggie Bush, Vernon Davis. Take your pick. They all happen to be on my fantasy football team.

Top rookie: Adrian Peterson is running away from defenses as well as his opposition for this award. The first-round pick is a key reason the Vikings (3-4 overall and ATS) are flirting with the .500 mark.

What team to cash in on in the second half: The Cleveland Browns have a winning record (4-3) and are 5-2 ATS. They're also a consistently strong over play, meaning the offense – thought to be the team's most deficient area entering the season – is scoring on almost everyone. They're averaging over 27 points per game and have won three of four outright.

Who's going to make the AFC playoffs?: New England, Indianapolis and San Diego were the givens before the season, and now that the Chargers have righted themselves, the triumvirate seems likely to again reach the postseason. Pittsburgh also looks like it should hold on to win its division. That leaves the two wildcard spots. Tennessee and Jacksonville are both 5-2, but the Jaguars have a brutal schedule ahead. They're at resurgent New Orleans next week, then play on the road again when they meet the Titans in a big divisional game. On Nov. 18, Jacksonville hosts San Diego. The Jaguars have had plenty of chances to prove they're a legitimate contender and failed often. I think they play their way out, leaving room for one of the surprise teams (Cleveland or Kansas City) to sneak in.

What about the NFC?: Usually a trainwreck at midseason, the NFC appears to have some semblance of sanity. The Cowboys, Packers and Lions look like the real deal while the Seahawks figure to win the West by default. Assuming the Giants don't implode like they have the past two seasons, they'll be in as either the East winner or a wildcard team if they can't catch Dallas. That leaves the South winner, which more and more is looking like New Orleans.

Who's going to win the Patriots at Colts showdown?: I don't think anyone should be picking against the Patriots until they lose, or at least fail to cover the spread. What I will do is bet the over on this game. It could play in the high 70s to low 80s.

by Adrian Brijbassi 
Bodog Nation Contributing Writer

NFL Week 9 Preview

by Carlisle Richards
Bodog Nation Contributing Writer

You know what's coming: Patriots vs. Colts.

It's been called Armageddon, the perfect storm, Super Bowl XLI ½… me, I just call it a tough bet.

Picking between these two powerhouses is like picking between Robert DeNiro and Al Pacino. But in the end, how can you go against the coach with a vendetta bigger than Beatrix Kiddo's - Bill Belichick?

The NFL accused him of cheating, and he seems bent on using his weapons of mass destruction (Tom Brady, Randy Moss, Lawrence Maroney, Wes Welker) to prove that, without a doubt, his dynasty is authentic.

Whether Belichick can secure another historic win, or Tony Dungy and the Colts will remind the world who the Super Bowl champs are, the winner will probably be sitting on top of our power rankings in Week 10.

As for Week 9, check below to see how we ranked all 32 teams:

1. New England Patriots (7-0-1 ATS, 7-1-0 OU, 8-0-0 SU)
What else is there to say about the Pats? They could be the most dominant NFL team in betting history for two reasons: They have the talent to run up the score on anyone, and coach Belichick wants to run up the score on everyone.

2. Indianapolis Colts (5-2-0 ATS, 3-4-0 OU, 7-0-0 SU)
+6.5 homedogs as the undefeated, defending Super Bowl champs? I feel like a Yankees' fans after A-Rod was let go – I know it's the right thing to do, but it still feels so wrong.

3. Green Bay Packers (5-1-1 ATS, 4-3-0 OU, 6-1-0 SU)

All right Brett Favre, you win. You can cover consistently without a marquee running back. Now please, no more Sunday or Monday Nighters. I don't think I can stand another three-and-a-half hours of Favre fellatio.

4. Cleveland Browns (5-1-1 ATS, 6-0-1 OU, 4-3-0 SU)
Fantasy football can put this team's betting successes into perspective: Derek Anderson is the third-best fantasy quarterback in most leagues while Braylon Edwards is the second-best wide receiver.

5. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2-0 ATS, 3-4-0 OU, 5-2-0 SU)
The Steelers got back to business in Cincinnati. Ben Roethlisberger only tossed it 26 times in comparison to 30 runs by Willie Parker and Najeh Davenport. Surprise, surprise, they easily won and covered.

6. Tennessee Titans (4-2-1 ATS, 1-6-0 OU, 5-2-0 SU)
They're cutting it close. All their games except one were decided by seven points or less. But the Titans are happy with the way they're winning games. Unfortunately, this means any spread -7 and up should be a no-fly zone for bettors until their passing offense (ranked 29th overall) picks it up.

7. Dallas Cowboys (4-2-1 ATS, 5-2-0 OU, 6-1-0 SU)
Tony Romo's signed up forever, and the 'Boys are healthy after their Week 8 bye. But buyers should tread softly. Dallas didn't look spectacular versus the Vikings, and they play at Philadelphia this weekend, a team they never beat ATS in 2006.

8. New York Giants (5-3-0 ATS, 4-4-0 OU, 6-2-0 SU)
Did Londoners (or even bettors) get to see the real New York Giants on Sunday? It seems like the G-Men were thrown off by that super-sized Slip n' Slide London, England calls Wembley Field.

9. San Diego Chargers (4-3-0 ATS, 4-3-0 OU, 4-3-0 SU)

After blowing out the Texans on Sunday, the Chargers have three covers in a row. This team's offense and defense is hot. In their last three games, the offense has been averaging 34.6 points, and the defense has been holding opponents to nine points per game. This weekend, the seven points they're given at Minnesota may be the easiest bet you’ll see from them in weeks. After Week 9, they play Indy, at Jacksonville, Baltimore, Kansas City and at Tennessee.

10. Arizona Cardinals (5-2-0 ATS, 4-3-0 OU, 3-4-0 SU)
If Kurt "the one-armed warrior" Warner can stay healthy, this team could continue to surprise oddsmakers as underdogs. But stay away from them as faves until they show their potential on offense consistently.

11. Buffalo Bills (5-2-0 ATS, 2-5-0 OU, 3-4-0 SU)
Could the winning streak be over? After two wins straight up and four straight ATS, the Bills lost rookie QB Trent Edwards to a wrist injury. J.P. Losman and his "hit or miss" style are back. The Bills could be "hit or miss" ATS until Edwards comes back.

12. Detroit Lions (4-2-1 ATS, 3-4-0 OU, 5-2-0 SU)
With Kevin Jones back in the lineup and running effectively, they've lost the run-and-gun style that made them a good over play. However, their new direction has still been good for their ATS record. They've covered two in a row.

13. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-3-0 ATS, 3-4-0 OU, 5-2-0 SU)
If there's one coaching strategy that's worked consistently for bettors, it's a conservative, low-risk gameplan. With QB Quinn Gray starting for the first time, the Jaguars had him on a baby leash all Sunday (7-16 for 100 yards and 1 TD). The result was a mistake-free, run-heavy performance by the Jags in a 24-23 win and cover over the Buccaneers.

14. Kansas City Chiefs (4-2-1 ATS, 2-5-0 OU, 4-3-0 SU)
How have the Chiefs been getting results without a consistent passing game? Defense. Defensive end Jared Allen has eight sacks on the season. They hope to get Favre off his game when his Packers visit Arrowhead Stadium this weekend.

15. Carolina Panthers (4-3-0 ATS, 2-5-0 OU, 4-3-0 SU)
The Panthers' two-game trip through the AFC South didn't have a great start, with the Colts rolling over them 31-7. Next up is Tennessee and their ferocious D-line. David Carr and Vinny Testaverde, if you thought you had injury issues before…

16. Minnesota Vikings (2-2-3 ATS, 3-4-0 OU, 2-5-0 SU)
Jeff George wants to come back and play football even though he hasn't tossed in an NFL contest since 2001. After watching Tavaris Jackson, Brooks Bollinger and Kelly Holcomb play QB, the Vikings have nothing to lose by bringing him in.

17. Atlanta Falcons (4-3-0 ATS, 2-5-0 OU, 1-6-0 SU)
Coming off a bye week, there isn't much to say about Atlanta. I'm not sure if I would have anything great to say even if they had played in Week 8.

18. Philadelphia Eagles (3-4-0 ATS, 2-5-0 OU, 3-4-0 SU)
The Philly rollercoaster continues. This weekend, they looked good and covered. Next weekend, who knows?

19. Washington Redskins (2-3-2 ATS, 2-5-0 OU, 4-3-0 SU)
Call me classless, but if I were Joe Gibbs, I would've put a hit squad out on Tom Brady for Belichick running up the score.

20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-4-0 ATS, 3-5-0 OU, 4-4-0 SU)
Can Tampa make the playoffs with such mediocre talent? Yes. Can they be trusted ATS with such mediocre talent? No.

21. Seattle Seahawks (3-4-0 ATS, 2-5-0 OU, 4-3-0 SU)
The Seahawks have looked bad SU and ATS, but the NFC West is so horrible that they'll still probably walk into the playoffs.

22. New Orleans Saints (2-5-0 ATS, 3-4-0 OU, 3-4-0 SU)

Drew Brees is slowly getting his mojo back, and Marques Colston is starting to get touches. We'll see how they do this weekend versus Jacksonville as 3.5 favorites before calling it a comeback.

23. Oakland Raiders (3-4-0 ATS, 4-3-0 OU, 2-5-0 SU)
How much kudos can you give a team for covering the spread at Tennessee when the Oakland run D gave up over 200 on the ground. The Raiders O-line and D-line will probably keep them in the bottom 12 of our power rankings all year.

24. Houston Texans (3-5-0 ATS, 5-3-0 OU, 3-5-0 SU)
Injuries have kept this team from reaching their potential. They inch closer to being coupled with the worst bets in football with their fifth-straight loss ATS.

25. Cincinnati Bengals (3-4-0 ATS, 4-3-0 OU, 2-5-0 SU)
The Bengals' defense looks light-years away from showing any improvement. Chad Johnson isn't to blame, but maybe trading for a game-changing defender in the offseason isn't such a bad idea.

26. Chicago Bears (2-6-0 ATS, 4-4-0 OU, 3-5-0 SU)
It's time for them to give the other Adrian Peterson some carries. Cedric Benson has been horrible (3.1 yards per carry). As a result, Brian Griese has averaged about 40 passes his last three games. More passes for a dwindling QB can only cause more turnovers.

27. Baltimore Ravens (1-6-0 ATS, 2-3-2 OU, 4-3-0 SU)

Nothing's scared me more this Halloween than the Ravens' remaining schedule after their bye. Next six: at Pittsburgh, versus Cincinnati, versus Cleveland, at San Diego, versus New England and versus Indianapolis. This team is on the "no-bet" list indefinitely.

28. San Francisco 49ers (2-5-0 ATS, 3-4-0 OU, 2-5-0 SU)
Am I the only one that's ready to declare Alex Smith a flop? The Niners' offense is as useless with him as they are without him.

29. Miami Dolphins (2-5-1 ATS, 5-3-0 OU, 0-8-0 SU)
Rest up during your bye week, Miami. When you come back, your opponent, Buffalo, could be your last chance to get a win this season.

30. Denver Broncos (1-6-0 ATS, 5-2-0 OU, 3-4-0 SU)
The Broncos' problems creeped up again on Monday Night: defense versus the run (the Packers ran for 100-plus with some guy named Ryan Grant) and problems in the redzone (they fumbled on the Green Bay one-yard line).

31. New York Jets (1-6-1 ATS, 4-3-1 OU, 1-7-0 SU)
Finally, second-year QB Kellen Clemens is in. His arm strength should help the vertical attack, but overall, this team is a lost cause in betting circles.

32. St. Louis Rams (1-7-0 ATS, 2-6-0 OU, 0-8-0 SU)
In Week 8, the offense was clicking with Steven Jackson, then they went to the septic tank when he left with back spasms. The team has the offensive firepower to surprise oddsmakers, but Jackson has to be healthy to make it happen.

NFL Point Spread Winner Colts to cover against Patriots

Colts will Top Patriots

I really thought that the Washington Redskins had a chance, because of their run game, of beating the 17.5 points against the spread that they faced last Sunday versus the New England Patriots.

From my point-of-view, the Patriots were just a few possessions away from getting into a struggle and all a team needed to do was run that clock and keep Brady and company off the field. What happened? Well, Mike Vrabel, the Patriots’ underappreciated linebacker, had an unbelievable game. He caused three fumbles, caught a touchdown pass, and just pretty much dominated the Redskins’ offensive-line.

What the game came down to was the play of Redskins’ QB Jason Campbell versus the defensive schemes of Bill Belicheat. Belicheat is still an awfully good coach and his defensive schemes eventually destroyed whatever offensive plans the genius on the other sideline, Joe Gibbs, had in mind.

The Patriots ended up pasting the Redskins 52 to 7. Ouch.

The Indianapolis Colts didn’t have much more trouble versus the Carolina Panthers this past Sunday. The Colts were on the road and the overrated Panthers didn’t put up much of a fight. The Colts won the game handily, beating the Panthers 31 to 7. Now, some NFL experts may look at the score and figure that the Colts did what they were supposed to do while the Patriots did what great teams do. I’m inclined to think, after watching both teams play this past Sunday, that the Colts are probably the better team.

Now, don’t get me wrong here, I do believe that the Patriots are an unbelievable football team. But, there’s one difference between the two teams that I believe, in a sixty minute game, will determine the winner.

The difference to me is the presence of Joseph Addai. Unlike the Redskins, who have an inexperienced quarterback, the Colts have one Peyton Manning at the helm. Manning requires opposing defenses not to key on the running back. That means that you, as a defensive coordinator versus the Colts, cannot stack the box with eight men and take away Addai. If you attempt to take away the Colts’ run game, they kill you with the pass. If you attempt to take away the pass, they kill you with the run.

The Patriots, meanwhile, do not have much of a run game. What happens against the Colts defense without a run game? Well, a team that lacks a real run game ends up playing right into the hands of Indianapolis Colts’ Coach Tony Dungy’s defensive scheme, the Tampa Cover 2. The Cover 2 is designed to drop line-backers into coverage and dare the quarterback to find the open man. Its success is dependent on getting pressure on the quarterback.

Will the Colts get enough pressure on Tom Brady to force the unbeatable QB into a mistake or two? I believe they will. The Colts are at home in this one. They’ve played the tougher schedule so far this year. They are more prepared to handle the Patriots’ offense than any other team the Patriots’ have faced so far this year. Bob Sanders, the Colts tough run-stopper, is finally healthy.

Of course, the best reason to like the Colts is the betting line. The BetUS NFL line is Indianapolis Colts + 6 against the spread at home versus the New England Patriots. This is a no-brainer. Take the 6 and the Indianapolis Colts and think hard about putting something on that money-line. Peyton and co. will not let the Patriots win this one in their house.

by D.S. Williamson

Interested in writing a football betting column? email doug-at-zewkey-dot-com

NFL Week 9 Showdown Patriots vs Colts

For the first time in NFL history two teams will meet in a Week 9 matchup being undefeated when the 8-0 SU (straight up) New England Patriots invades the RCA Dome to play the 7-0 SU Indianapolis Colts on Sunday for a NFL betting spectacle.

The Colts became the first team since the 1929-31 Green Bay Packers to win their first seven games for three straight seasons with a win over the Carolina Panthers 31-7 last week for their fourth consecutive cover win. On the year, the Colts are 5-2 ATS (against the spread).

Meanwhile, the Patriots waxed the Washington Redskins 52-7 last week to remain perfect ATS this year. The Patriots have scored at least 34 points in each game and have won each by 17 points or more. They've outscored opponents by an average of 41.3 to 15.9.

Now, the Patriots and Colts are poised to collide to answer the question: Who's the best team in the NFL?

Amazingly, New England has covered the spread in 13 of their last 14 games with their last money-dropping and SU loss coming to Indianapolis in last year's AFC championship game.

Both teams are offensive juggernauts. The Patriots are putting up 41.4 (NFL-best) points per game and collecting 439.5 yards led by quarterback Tom Brady, who has the most touchdown passes in the league at 30 and best quarterback rating of 136.2.

Colts' Peyton Manning has the second highest quarterback rating at 102.9. Offensively, Indianapolis is scoring 32 points per game and posting 398.9 yards.

The potent offenses overshadow the defenses which is good on each side. The Patriots are allowing just 15.9 (5th-best in the NFL) points per game and 268.5 yards, but the Colts are even better by surrendering 14.6 (2nd-best in the NFL) points and 272.9 yards.

Despite having won 12 consecutive games SU and having home cooking on their side, NFL odds list the Colts early 6½ -point underdogs with a game total of 57½.

It's hard to bet against Manning and the Colts at home, where Indianapolis has covered in their last five games, but considering the Patriot's domination it's easy to get down on New England in what's the most anticipated game of the decade and one NFL betting fans won't want to miss.

by Robby Maddux