Football Betting

Over/Under Betting Tips for NFL and NCAA Totals

Over/Under betting is the easiest wager available in football betting. Simply add the score of the two teams together (including Overtime) and if it is higher than the posted total, the Over wins. If it is lower than the posted number, the Under wins. It doesn't get easier than that. However, unlike pointspreads, many new bettors have difficulty predicting outcomes for totals, either from lack of experience or just lack of knowledge.

Most bettors are fans and fans like points so the Over is always a popular choice for recreational bettors. This results in the totals typically moving up over the course of the week. However, professional bettors know this and bet enough Unders to keep bookmakers honest and the posted totals fair. A simple rule for betting totals though is to bet the Over early in the week and the Under late. This won't always work but if you track this rule over any length of time, you should see it holds up as a general trend.

There are other reasons that the Over is popular. One is the Overtime rule in college football. There is no limit to the number of points that can be scored with the NCAAís ìshoot-outî overtime rules. Teams can play to a 7-7 tie through the first four quarters and then put up 45 in Overtime to make the Over a winner. If the game is close in college, your Over bet always has a chance. Another factor is that with the Over, you can know your bet will be a winner early in the game (but remember games must go 55 minutes for wagers to have action). Under bettors never have the same luxury of knowing there bet is already a winner at Halftime. However, none of the reasons that make the Total popular can help you pick winners. Keep this in mind.

Now lets look at some likely outcomes for totals. With spreads, we all know that 3 and 7 are key numbers (for more on this you can read issues 6 or 25) and to a lesser extent, so are 1, 4, 6 and 10 but with totals I am surprised how few bettors realize there are certain important totals to be aware of. I will readily admit that there are no "key" totals in the same vein as key spreads.

For the last 10 years, both 37 and 41 have landed over 4% of the time in the NFL, making them the most likely outcomes (so is 30 but it is not a commonly posted total as are 37 and 41). 37 is a likely score as it the combination of 4 Touchdowns and 3 Field Goals (obviously there are other combinations as well with 2-point converts and safeties possible). 20-17 is a very common score, but 27-10 or 24-13 will get the same total just as easily. 41 is a likely score because it is the combination of 5 Touchdowns and 2 Field Goals. 21-20 anybody? Most bettors quickly recognize the value in laying 2.5 points instead of 3, but not many recognize how much better Under 41 is compared to 40.5. Spend sometime working through combinations of TDs and FGs and you will quickly see where other key totals (38, 40, 43, etc.) lie. This will help you spot value in shopping for totals.

Now, lets talk about handicapping totals. If team A scores 28 points per game and Team B gives up 26, the prediction looks to be 27 for Team A. But if league scoring average is only 24 points, this would be a match-up of an above average offense and a below average defense. Thus the prediction should be higher, right? One method is to start with the league average and add or subtract to it based on team stats. In this case, the league average is 24 and you could add 4 points for team A being 4 points above average on offence and add 2 points for team B being below average on defense for a predicted score of 30. Do the same thing for team B and you have a predicted game total.

One key point is to always be sure to check the weather for any total you bet. Bookmakers take weather into account and so should you. Rain and snow aren't as big of factors as many people make them out to be as defenders are just as likely to slip as offensive players and one or two big plays can drive a total way up. Wind on the other hand is underrated and forces teams to run more. This can eat up the clock and help lower total scores.

In summary, the total is a very important part of a bettor's arsenal and one that not enough people take advantage of. Spend some time looking through the totals of all the NFL games and you will surely find some betting opportunities.

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Week 5 NFL Over/Under Winners

Take the OVER on Detroit

By D. S. Williamson

When one thinks of the Detroit Lions usually one of three images comes to mind: Billy Sims writhing in pain on the Lions' artificial surface, Barry Sanders rushing past defenders, or Lions' players hanging their heads in frustration after another loss to a better opponent.

Of course, that was then and this is now. More importantly, that was the past few years and this is this year.

The Lions are for real. Mainly, because their offense is unstoppable and just got more unstoppable with Kevin Jones returning from injury. Now, they go two deep in the running back position, with Jones and former Denver ace, Tatum Bell, and three to four deep in the wide receiver position. Their quarterback, John Kitna, has always been somewhat underrated by NFL personnel managers and, on top of being an accurate passer, has become an effective leader.

The Lions' defense? Okay, maybe that's where the frustration begins. The Lions' D is terrible and won't get better any season. That will, eventually, be the downfall to this team. But, NFL bettors need not worry, because a bad D means gold to NFL bettors. There is a particular trend that started last year that is supported by both the Lions' potent offense and porous defense.

Football Betting Trend: The Over is 9 – 2 in Detroit's last 11 Road Games.

Because it is so early in the season, this trend points to a couple of things. First, that the Lions' offense was potent last year, on the road, and that their defense was bad last year, on the road. Now, taking certain factors specific to this season into account, namely the growth of John Kitna in offensive coordinator Mike Martz'es system, as well as the drafting of Calvin Johnson and the signing of Tatum Bell, and the trend becomes even more powerful. The truth is that the Lions' may be looking at an extremely rare 80% to 90% OVER Season.

What this means is that the total points will go over in 80 to 90 percent of the Lions' games. Why? Because no matter what happens to a team, basic NFL betting strategy says that it is difficult to reach that "college football" plateau of 60 total points. Odds-makers just can't let themselves put a large number, like 60, onto to the total of an NFL game. Yet, the Lions' D is so awful, teams merely need to play straight-up football and they are almost guaranteed 17 to 21 points in the game. Now, when these teams are home, they will score more and the Lions will score less, but when the Lions are home, they will score more and the visiting teams will score less - - or, the visiting team will still score more.

It doesn't matter. The Lions are the perfect over team.

Still on the Lions' schedule are the following teams: Denver Broncos, Arizona Cardinals, New York Giants, Green Bay Packers, Dallas Cowboys, San Diego Chargers, Kansas City Chiefs, and Green Bay Packers again.

They also have to play the Minnesota Vikings twice with rookie of the year candidate Adrian Peterson and get to play the Chicago Bears again who have proven that their defense gets tired in the fourth quarter.

Although not all of the teams above have bad defenses, they can give up a lot of points to a team with Calvin Johnson and Roy Williams. More importantly, they all have good offenses or at least they have offenses with weapons. That means the Detroit Lions will give up a lot of points on their own - - always.

There's a final reason to bet the Detroit Lions' games to go over the rest of this NFL season. The Detroit coaching staff understands how bad their defense is. They want to get into shoot-outs. That's the only way they can win.

Early look at several Over/Under Lines

by Laffit

Here's my thoughts on the over/under bets for week 5.

Carolina Panthers
New Orleans Saints        43.5 O/U

The Saints have struggled to stop anyone this season, or last season either.  Carolina has a solid running attack with two effective backs which they will use to set up their play action attack with Steve Smith.  This has the look of the Saints doing a lot of guess work (blitzing) against the Panther offense, but Carr has never really shown the ability to beat the blitz effectively. So look for the Panthers to grind the clock down and possibly hit a couple big plays with Smith, not a huge offensive explosion. 
The Saints will be forced to use Reggie Bush more than they want and have no one to pick up the short yardage they will occasionally need.  I'm not sure the bye week did anything but apply more pressure to to Saints.  This is not the same fortunate team from last year and they will struggle without the leader, Duece.

Go against public opinion and lean on under 43.5

- New Orleans begins the task of digging out from an 0-3 hole Sunday when they host Carolina in an NFC South battle. They will do it without Deuce McAllister and with questions about whether Reggie Bush is the man for fulltime work.

Oddsmakers currently have the Saints listed as 3-point favorites versus the Panthers, while the game's total is sitting at 45.

The Panthers lost to Tampa Bay 20-7 as a 3-point favorite in Week 4. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (39).

David Carr completed 19-of-41 passes for 155 yards with a touchdown and an interception and DeAngelo Williams caught three passes for 37 yards with a touchdown.

The Saints lost 31-14 to the Titans in Week 3, as 4.5-point favorites at the Superdome. The combined 46 points fell just UNDER the posted total of 46.5.

Drew Brees threw for 225 yards and completed 29-of-45 pass attempts, while tossing four interceptions in the loss. Reggie Bush carried the ball seven times and ran in for two touchdowns.

Current streak:
New Orleans has lost 3 straight games.

Team records:
Carolina: 2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS
New Orleans: 0-3 SU, 0-3 ATS

Carolina most recently:
When playing in October are 7-3
When playing on turf are 7-3
After being outgained are 6-4
When playing within the division are 8-2

New Orleans most recently:
When playing in October are 4-6
When playing on turf are 5-5
After being outgained are 4-6
When playing within the division are 4-6

A few trends to consider:
Carolina is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
Carolina is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
Carolina is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Carolina is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games when playing at home against Carolina

Next up:
Carolina at Arizona, Sunday, October 14
New Orleans at Seattle, Sunday, October 14

NFL Betting Odds – Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers

by Eric Williams

The Kansas City Chiefs (1-2 SU, 1-1 ATS, 0-3 O/U) got their first win of the season last week by beating the young Minnesota Vikings 13-10. The Chiefs do have several problematic areas, first and foremost their inept offensive line which has contributed heavily to the team’s 29th-ranked offense and 31st-ranked rushing attack.

The Chargers (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS, 2-1 O/U) have lost two consecutive games since beating the Chicago Bears in their season opener and it is clear this team has some serious problems at the moment despite their frighteningly talented roster. San Diego is ranked a dismal 27th on offense despite having the game’s best running back, a promising young quarterback and one of the top tight ends in the game. The Chargers have also tumbled on the defensive side of the football, falling all the way to 22nd overall from their lofty top-10 perch of last season.

Here is a look at tonight’s key trends followed by my Free NFL Betting Picks:

Key Chiefs Trends

The Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 4.

 

The Chiefs are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 vs. AFC West.

The Chiefs are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

Key Chargers Trends

The Chargers are 13-3-2 ATS in their last 18 games following a S.U. loss.

The Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 4.

The Chargers are 13-4-3 ATS in their last 20 vs. AFC West.

Key Totals Trends

The Under is 5-0 in Chiefs last 5 games as a road underdog.

The Under is 5-0 in Chiefs last 5 games as an underdog.

The Over is 6-1 in Chargers last 7 games following a ATS loss.

The Over is 5-1 in Chargers last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.

Key Head-to-Head Trends

The Home team is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

The Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

The Chiefs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

Analysis: While I like the Chargers to win this game outright, I’m having a hard time seeing them wining this game by 15 points unless they instantly transform into the Chargers of last season. Take the Chiefs to cover the spread with another solid defensive effort.

NFL Free Picks: Chargers 24 Chiefs 17

04:15 PM EST NFL Odds

Kansas City Chiefs +13 -110

San Diego Chargers -13 -110

Over 40 -110

Under 40 -110