Colts -6.5
Total 44.5
After a slow start to this season, the Indianapolis Colts have found some rhythm and are approaching the postseason as one of the hottest teams in the league. Coach Tony Dungy's troops will be looking to extend a seven-game winning streak when they head south for a visit with one of the most disappointing teams in the league this season, the Jacksonville Jaguars, in NFL Thursday night action this week (8:15 pm Eastern, NFL Network).
Oddsmaker.com is listing Indy as 6.5-point favorites on the road for Thursday night's game, with a total of 44.5. The Colts are also being offered at –260 on the Oddsmaker moneyline, with the Jags getting +220 as home underdogs.
Indy entered this season as the five-time running champs of the AFC South. But QB Peyton Manning was coming off two hushed-up knee surgeries, and the health of several other key players was also in question. After a loss at Tennessee in Week 6 the Colts sat at 3-3, and that included a late come-from-behind win at Minnesota and a minor miracle-style victory in Houston.
But a big win at home over New England, followed by an upset of the Steelers in Pittsburgh catapulted the Colts into contention, although they did have to hold off hapless and winless Detroit last week before finally prevailing by a 31-21 score. So at 10-4, Indianapolis owns the fifth AFC playoff spot, with two games to play.
Meanwhile, Jacksonville entered this season as the prime choice to replace Indy atop the AFC South. The Jags went 11-5 last year and won a playoff game in Pittsburgh before falling in the divisional round at New England. The Colts were getting older, and supposedly running out of gas, while Jacksonville was young and tough, and was going to run the ball down opponents’ throats on offense, and punch 'em in the mouth on defense.
However some key early-season injuries – especially along the offensive line – slowed that running game, QB David Garrard proved mortal, and after a 4-5 start the Jaguars almost looked like a team that had given up, losing its next four games in a row by an average score of 27-13. A 20-16 victory over luckless Green Bay last week slowed the bleeding, but this is a team reduced from playoff contention to playing out the string at 5-9.
These two teams met back in Week 3 in Indianapolis, when Josh Scobee hit a 51-yard field goal at the buzzer to give the Jags a 23-21 upset win. Last season the Colts took the two games from J-Ville by scores of 29-7 and 28-25.
So far this NFL season, teams that win the time-of-possession battle have won 71% of the games played, and have covered the spread 71% of the time. Going into Thursday's game, Jacksonville ranks eighth in the league in average TOP at 31:42, while Indianapolis ranks 29th at 27:59.
The totals are 7-7 in Colts games this season, which are averaging 43 total points, while the O/Us are 5-8-1 in Jags games, which are averaging 41 points.
