The oddsmakers in Vegas and at BetUS have the New England Patriots emerging as front-runners for the Super Bowl.
Of course, this is all contingent on how good you think Tom Brady is
going to be. After getting his knee obliterated in Week 1 of the 2008
season, Brady is back and is reportedly 100% ready to go.
“He looks great in practice!”
That’s what you hear from the scouting reports. You know who else
probably looks great in practice? Chris Simms, JaMarcus Russell and my
freaking mother (she has a canon for an arm). The fact remains that
Brady’s injury happened on his pivot knee, meaning the knee that will
be twisting during the 500+ attempts he manages in the 2009 season…if
he makes it that far.
I’m not questioning his talent at all, nor the coaching genius of
Bill Belichik. Not even close. What I am questioning is his resiliency
to a time-tested injury that has plagued athletes for centuries. The
closest comparison we could possible have is Carson Palmer of the
Cincinnati Bengals.
Palmer, who had a breakout year in 2005 had his knee dismantled in
the playoffs by Kimo von Oelhoffen of the Pittsburgh Steelers. Since
then, Palmer’s production has dropped lower and lower. He went from a
101.1 rating in 2005 followed by ratings of 93.9, 86.7 and 69.0. The
last season was a rating from four games in 2008 since Carson also had
a recurring elbow problem.
And while the numbers don’t necessarily lie, they don’t tell the
whole truth. Carson Palmer is not the same player he was in 2005. Not
even close. He was a brash, superhuman gun slinger, fearlessly towering
in the pocket and burning the skies with laser passing. Now, he’s just
not the same. Granted, some of that has to be contributed to the
abysmal state of affairs in Cincinnati, but Palmer has lost something
in his pass, and is certainly not the same field presence he was in
2005.
Tom Brady’s NFL Betting Odds
Win AFC: +350 (Conference favorite)
Win AFC East: -400 (Division favorite)
Win MVP: +400 (NFL favorite)
Win Super Bowl XLIV: +900 (NFL favorite)
What makes Brady different? He’s not even close to the athletic
phenom that Carson Palmer is. Before his injury last year, he averaged
519 attempts a year. In perhaps the greatest year of any NFL
quarterback, Brady shattered the touchdown record with 50 passing
scores, 4,806 yards and a rating of 117.2. Randy Moss and Wes Welker
will still be in Patriots’ uniforms next year, so the only thing that
is going to change is Brady’s knee.
How will it effect his mental well-being? He hasn’t stood in the
pocket with an actual opposing defense ready to bear down on him yet.
Do you realize how many times the Patriots’ betting backers are going
to vomit in their own mouths every time Brady is sacked? Is this a bad
time to mention that the Patriots play the Bills, Jets, Falcons and
Ravens in the first four weeks of the season? They also get the Titans
in Week 6 and the Bucs in Week 7.
I don’t know about you guys, but I’m not banking on a reconstructed
knee to win the Superbowl. Not when Pittsburgh is coming off a
galvanizing year, and with so many question marks about Brady’s
physical and mental strength in what will be his greatest test to date.
If you’re willing to stomach the gut wrenching ride of Tom Brady 2.0,
then be my guest. Just don’t come crying to me when your NFL betting bank, and Tom Brady, are left in the trenches without a leg to stand on.
