UFC
91 Analysis:
by Franky Redzepi email
Randy Couture (-105)
vs. Brock Lesnar (-115):
UFC 91 will be the
return of Randy "The Natural" Couture
after a year long layoff from fighting due to his legal problems with
the UFC.
Couture seems to have given up on the idea of fighting Fedor, and will
instead be defending his heavyweight title against 2-1 Brock
Lesnar.
I hope Brock is training hard, because he really has been gift wrapped
this title shot. A lot of factors are going into this fight, and a lot
of questions are being asked?
Is Brock ready for the title shot? Will
Randy be affected by ring rust? Will age finally catch up with Randy?
Will Brock's 50 pound weight advantage me too much for the small Couture?
I guess we'll figure all this out on the day of the fight, but I'll take
a few guesses on some of those questions. I picked Brock to beat Herring
by decision and I picked Brock to lose to Mir by kneebar, so I'm good
at guessing when it comes to Brock. It should definitely be an interesting
fight due to all these questions.
The main thing that bothers me about this fight is wrestling credentials.
I usually don't care much for wrestling credentials because this is
MMA, not wrestling, but I have to talk about it real fast because of
what
I've read online. A lot of people seem to think Brock is a huge and
unstoppable wrestler that has better credentials than Couture, which
just isn't true.
Brock was an NCAA champion and a runner up. He never went to the Olympics,
never tried out, but everyone assumes he would've run right through
them if he did. In 1999, Lesnar lost to a guy named Stephen Neal in
the NCAA
Finals. Stephen Neal later went on to try out for the 2000 Sydney Olympics,
where he lost in the Olympic Trials and never made it to Sydney. So
for everyone to just assumed Brock would have simply walked into the
Olympics
and cleaned house...you're a bit off. I'm definitely not saying the
guy couldn't have won, but to assume Brock would win easily is a bit
crazy.
Randy is at least on the same level as Brock in terms of wrestling
credentials, if not a bit higher on that pedestal. Couture was a NCAA
runner up in
1991, and was also a runner up in 1992 to Mark Kerr. Couture also had
much more experience on the international level and was an Olympic
alternate, so that might just push him above Lesnar in terms of actual
credentials.
I'm sure I've missed some bits and pieces of both guys' wrestling credentials,
but that's enough wrestling mumbo-jumbo already. MMA wrestling is much
different than mat wrestling, just look at how GSP takes guys like
Koscheck down. Couture will most likely be the better MMA wrestler
due to his
experience in the cage. Nobody has applied Greco-Roman to MMA like
Randy, and nobody uses the cage as effectively as Randy does. I'm not
saying
Brock can't take Randy down, because Brock will probably take Randy
down in the first and second rounds just due to his strength and size,
but
don't think Randy won't return the favor. One thing I saw in Brock's
fight against Herring was that Herring, the worst wrestler in the division,
was able to push Brock's back against the cage a few times. People
will probably say Brock was just resting, but who says he won't rest
against
Randy? If Herring can push Brock up against the cage, then so can Randy.
Randy just sucks the life out of guys when he puts them against the
cage. Just look at what happened to Gonzaga when he fought Randy. Randy
used
the cage and made Gonzaga break mentally, and Gonzaga is far more experienced
than Lesnar, and he's better off his back. If Randy puts anyone against
the cage they will go down, we see it all the time. I don't care how
big and strong Brock is, he has never been against such a dangerous
clinch fighter like Randy. Never.
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I'd also
have to say that Randy will have the striking advantage. We've seen
much improved striking
from Randy in his last few fights.
He moves
his head much more and seems to have some more power. He mixes
up his strikes and throws combos, which could confuse Brock. I've only
seen
Brock throw about three punches standing, but those punches were
definitely powerful, but also very slow. Randy will make Brock
miss
a lot, and
that will help Brock gas faster. Brock is still an unnatural fighter
in my
eyes. What that means is that his game isn't seamless, he doesn't
have a chain style of fighting. He does one thing at a time and
isn't really
putting it all together. Randy is good at striking, clinching,
dirty boxing, and then taking you down. Randy is much more of a seamless
fighter, more of a chain fighter. Brock doesn't have that element
to his game
yet because he hasn't fought enough yet. Brock is a wrestler who
will wrestle, and sometimes he throws a punch, but it isn't seamless.
When
Brock fought Herring he turned it into a wrestling match and fought
at his pace. Besides the right hand that Herring circled right
into
because
Herring didn't respect Brock's striking at all, Brock really didn't
do much besides wrestle. I don't see that type of game working
against Randy.
The funny thing in all this is that Brock still hasn't been punched,
he hasn't bled. I truly believe Randy will be the first one to
make both of those things happen. I don't think Brock will react
kindly
to having
the pace pushed against him for the first time ever. Randy will
definitely have to watch out for Brock's punches because we saw
that Brock does
have power, but I don't see Randy walking into a punch. Brock's
striking still looked very slow and robotic to me, and Randy won't
fall for
that game. Randy has fought much better strikers, but I do think
Brock's wrestling
and size will definitely be an issue. I do believe Randy will have
to survive off his back the first round, and Brock's size could
definitely cause Randy to tire quicker than usual. Randy will need
to make Brock
work for every single takedown, and make him work to hold him down.
Brock
won't be able to keep that pace for 25 minutes. I'd put Randy's
experience over Brock's size, youth, and strength any day, though.
I think Brock
will be quicker to gas just because of his size, because of him
being punched, because of him being put into a world he has never
seen
before. Brock will be put on his back late in the fight when he
is tired, he'll
get punched in the face repeatedly, and he won't have an answer.
Randy finishes Brock very late in the fight.
Randy Couture wins by Fifth Round KO/TKO. (top)
Kenny Florian (-185)
vs. Joe Stevenson (+160):
This is probably
the best fight on the card, and the winner should be right there for
a title shot. We last watched Florian
take care of Huerta
in a fight where we saw technique beats brawling. Stevenson last took
care of Tibau by landing his patented guillotine. Tibau gave him some
issues early on, but Tibau is a huge lightweight guy and seems to give
a lot of guys problems early. I'd have to give Kenny the striking advantage
in this one, wrestling goes to Joe, submissions are where things get
a bit iffy. Joe has fought and submitted better submission guys I think,
but for some reason I feel like Kenny has the more refined ground game.
This is a very tough fight to call because either guy can win depending
on the situation. I could easily see Kenny winning by forcing the fight
on the feet, but I could also see Joe taking him down and landing some
nice ground and pound. When you have a tough time picking a winner in
a fight, that's when you know it's a good fight.
Kenny used good, smart foot work when he fought Huerta. He kept Huerta
at bay and never over-engaged, Kenny was never in a bad spot because
of it. A lot of people complained about it being boring, but it was smart
and effective. Kenny took Huerta down a few times in that fight, which
was a bit surprising to me, but Huerta tends to get taken down a lot.
I'm not sure Kenny's evasive and elusive style that was used against
Huerta will work so effectively against Joe.
Huerta went into that fight
with the mentality to stand, Joe will not go in with that mentality.
I think Kenny will have a harder time keeping striking space because
of Joe shooting for takedowns a bit more than Huerta intended to. Lauzon
was able to get Kenny down a few times and his wrestling is nowhere near
as good as Stevenson's, so it's tough to see how this will go. Both of
these guys are also very good with elbows, so that could very well become
a factor in this fight.
Joe needs to take this fight to the ground and get on top then deliver
some of those elbows. Joe will not win on the feet, and I don't see him
submitting Kenny...not even with the guillotine. Joe has some very good
ground and pound and I don't see Kenny landing a submission off his back.
What Joe does have to watch for is Kenny's elbows, because he is dangerous
with them off his back too. Kenny cut Sherk and Lauzon off his back,
and we all saw how much Joe bled when Penn cut him. Joe definitely does
not want to get cut in this fight. Joe needs to pass the guard if he
does get on top, that way Kenny can't elbow as effectively. If Joe doesn't
pass, then he needs to stay busy on top and he needs to make Kenny cover
up. If Kenny covers up, he can't use his elbows, and that means no cuts.
If Joe is resting, he's getting elbowed. We haven't seen Kenny on his
back for extended periods of times since his fight with Sherk, so it
should be interesting to see if he has any new tricks. Lauzon put him
there for a bit, but not long enough. Kenny seems content to elbow from
his back, instead of trying for submissions.
I've slowly started to favor Kenny in this fight. I think Kenny is dangerous
in more areas. Joe needs to take Kenny down, and I haven't like the way
Joe's takedowns have looked as of late. I think Kenny can stay away from
Joe and make him strike, and if Kenny does get put on his back, I think
he'll land some nice elbows. I think Kenny cutting Joe is a very real
possibility in this fight, and it could possibly end it. Another factor
in this fight is Kenny trains with Kurt Pellegrino now, and Kurt fought
Joe to a close decision. Kurt looked amazing against Tavares and has
very good wrestling, so that's a key training partner to have against
someone like Stevenson. Kenny kind of knows what to expect first hand,
while Joe doesn't have that. I think we'll be seeing an evasive and elusive
Kenny Florian in this fight, just as we saw against Roger Huerta. It
might not be everyone's most favorite style, but it's very effective
and it wins fights. I do think a cut finish is very possible in this
fight, but I feel more comfortable with a Florian decision. This is a
very tough fight to call, but Kenny has looked better lately. No finish
this time, Kenny.
Kenny Florian wins by Unanimous Decision. (top)
This is another very
good fight. The middleweight division badly needs a new contender,
and it's beginning to look like Maia could be
that guy.
Maia has finished everyone he's fought in the UFC by submission so
far, so we can see that he has been able to adapt his world class submission
game to MMA. That's always the tough part for some submission guys,
adapting
it to an actual fight. Maia has submitted tough guys like Herman and
MacDonald, but I think Quarry will be the toughest test for Maia so
far. Quarry is a better striker than everyone Maia has fought, he has
the
most power, and might have the best defensive wrestling. Quarry will
actually get to fight this time too, because Maia won't run like Starnes.
This is a tough test for both guys, and whoever wins will definitely
earn contender status. The game-plan for each guy is easy. Quarry needs
to keep it standing, and Maia will have to bring it down to the ground.
Whoever implements their game will win. Quick little fact: Maia has
had four fights in the UFC, all of them were submission wins, and all
of
them were submission of the night.
We really haven't seen Quarry taken down and put on his back in the
UFC, but at the same time, no one has really tried to take him down.
Kalib
tried a few times, but he never committed to anything. These guys have
a common opponent in Gustavo Machada. It was a long time ago so it
doesn't hold much weight, but Quarry lost to Machada by decision, and
Maia beat
Machada by decision. That was one fight where I saw someone continually
try to take Quarry down, and succeed pretty frequently. Quarry will
probably try to keep Maia on the outside with his strikes, but Quarry
is too slow
with his punching and won't be effective at keeping Maia at bay. Maia
will be able to get Quarry down, and from there it's a long night for
Quarry, or a very short one. Even if Maia can't take Quarry down, he'll
just pull guard, which he has done many times. We've seen Maia take
down good wrestlers like Ed Herman, who might be a better wrestler
than Quarry.
Maia isn't that BJJ guy who has zero takedowns, he definitely has some
tricks in his arsenal.
The main thing in this fight is that there is no way Quarry can prepare
for what Maia will bring him on the ground. Maia can prepare for what
Quarry will bring on the feet because he trains with guys like Wanderlei
Silva. I'm not sure if getting punched by Quarry in MMA is worse than
getting punched by Wanderlei in sparring. Quarry needs to avoid going
to the ground, and that just isn't realistic. I find it impossible
to believe that Quarry will find a way to keep this on the feet for
a whole
15 minutes. That just won't happen, and when Maia does get it to the
ground, it'll be Maia dominating the fight. Unless Quarry lands the
magical punch and knocks Maia out, he'll probably lose this fight.
A knockout
is possible, but Maia has shown he's capable of avoiding damage. I
see Maia getting a lot of takedowns while Quarry just tries to survive
off
his back. Quarry is a tough guy so I think he'll last until the third,
possibly even to a decision, but he will lose the fight.
Demian Maia wins by Third Round Submission. (top)
Dustin Hazelett
(-180) vs. Tamden McCrory (+150):
McCrory defeated
Luke Cummo in the battle of the nerds last time out, and "McLovin" wants to come in and take the
title that he feels is rightfully his. These guys might not look like
the usual fighter,
but they can definitely fight. McCrory is a tall and rangy fighter, but
he is known as more of a submission guy and not a striker. He can definitely
throw some hands as we saw in his fight with Gono, but it seems like
he prefers to handle things on the ground in most cases. I'm not sure
Tamden will be looking to go to the ground in this fight, because Dustin
might have the best submission skills in the welterweight division. The
way Dustin used a whizzer against Burkman and turned it into an armbar
might have been one of the greatest submissions I've ever seen. That
was a thing of beauty and you definitely don't see that all the time.
Both of these guys aren't afraid to mix it up so it should be a damn
good fight, and I look forward to it. I'm glad this fight was moved to
the main card.
McCrory has the height and reach advantage in this fight, but I'm not
sure if he can effectively use it to out-strike Dustin. Hazelett isn't
exactly a short guy either, so it should be interesting to see how
the striking works out. McCrory had a HUGE height and reach advantage
on
Gono and he didn't really use it effectively. The commentary made it
seem like McCrory was beating the hell out of Gono, but I personally
thought McCrory was missing a lot more punches than landing. I don't
think Dustin is as slick as Gono on the feet, but he won't be at such
a disadvantage when it comes to reach. Hazelett really seems to have
a more refined striking game. He still looks a bit uncomfortable on
the feet and he seems to be systematic with his striking at times,
but he
isn't wild like McCrory. McCrory's game against Gono was to just throw
as many punches as he could, but it didn't work. I think Hazelett can
avoid damage on the feet, and land some of his own strikes. Dustin
has some really good kicks, and I think that will be one of his keys
to success
as they strike. I really don't see this fight standing long, it will
end up on the ground at some point and from there it favors Hazelett.
McCrory isn't terrible on the ground (he's actually good,) but there
are only a few people at 170 who can do what Hazelett does. The difference
in this fight will be the level of skill in each guys ground game.
The standup is pretty even, wrestling is pretty even, but submissions
DEFINITELY
go to Hazelett, and that's why Hazelett will win. I think Hazelett
will land some nice kicks standing up, and McCrory won't like the flow
of
the fight very much, which will cause McCrory to go for the takedown
due to his instincts. That will be the beginning of the end, and it
won't be long until Hazelett locks up the submission. I don't think
this one
will go past a round. I wonder if Hazelett can get submission of the
night over Maia.
Dustin Hazelett wins by First Round Submission. (top)
Gabriel Gonzaga
(-450)
vs. Josh Hendricks (+330):
Part of
me almost wants to think that there might be an upset hidden somewhere
in this
fight. Hendricks is a very good wrestler
and is now
training at Xtreme Couture, which is run by the man who beat Gonzaga,
Randy Couture. We all know Gonzaga has had issues with his cardio in
the past, so if Hendricks can push the fight and stay off the ground,
maybe he has a shot. That's a lot of "what ifs," though.
Realistically, this fight was made for Gonzaga to win. It's a showcase
fight for Gonzaga,
and he really should submit Hendricks in the first round, and maybe
even knock him out. Hey, he did knockout Mirko Cro Cop, so Gonzaga
knocking
out Hendricks really wouldn't surprise me. Hendricks hasn't fought
anyone on Gonzaga's level, and he isn't ready for this fight. The odds
heavily
favor Gonzaga, and they have reason to. I've questioned Gonzaga a lot
in the past, but I'd be surprised if he didn't finish Hendricks in
the first round. Gonzaga just hits too hard and his submission game
is too
good. Hendricks is a wrestler...he'll take Gonzaga down at a point
or at least try to, which isn't a good idea.
Gabriel Gonzaga wins by First Round Submission. (top)
Alvin Robinson (-110)
vs. Mark Bocek (-110):
Both guys
are coming off losses to former TUF winners, so it'll be important
for them to
come back and have a good showing
this
time. Whenever Mark
Bocek is brought up I always hear about his wrestling and his submission
game. My question is...where is it? I have yet to see these skills
displayed in the UFC. Getting out-wrestled by Edgar and getting choked
out by Danzig
doesn't really show me much of either skill. I have no doubt that he
has good credentials, but bringing those credentials to the fight is
a different story. Bocek has also shown that he gasses out quite a
bit, and that was one of the reasons why he got choked out by Danzig.
Robinson
did get triangled by Nate Diaz, but I really don't believe Bocek is
as tricky as Nate is off his back. If Bocek doesn't finish this fight
early,
I think he loses. Alvin showed he was able to survive early on against
Gurgel , and he turned it around to go on and win. I think Alvin will
be able
to out condition Bocek, and I also believe Robinson will be the bigger
fighter which will help him control on top. I see Bocek threatening
early on, but he'll gas when he sees Alvin has survived the early onslaught.
From there it'll be easy sailing for a Robinson decision.
Alvin Robinson wins by Unanimous Decision.
Quick
Picks:
Jeremy
Stephens (-245) defeats Rafael Dos Anjos (+195) by Unanimous Decision.
Matt Brown (-205) defeats Ryan Thomas (+165) by Second Round KO/TKO.
Jorge Gurgel (-130)
defeats Aaron Riley (+105)
by Unanimous Decision. (top)
Brandon
Vera, the last holder of the WEC HW belt, is fighting for the 4th time
as a LHW.
He should be used to the weight cut at this point
and should come in very crisp. His first fight at 205 was uninspired
in a decision win over Andy and his in next fight against the tough Keith
Jardine. Although the Jardine fight did show a stronger and more conditioned
Vera, he still was not showing the form he was at when he was competing
as a HW until he cam out and destroyed Mike Patt with leg kicks in his
last fight. Vera has great Muay Thai skills, effectively using kicks
and knees. A good example of some of Vera’s striking ability is
when he made the late Justin Eilers (RIP) look like a human Pez dispenser.
The Truth has wins over Whitehead, Fabio Scherner, Assuerio Silva, and Frank
Mir with losses to Tim Sylvia, Fabricio Werdum (in my opinion,
a very bad stoppage) and Jardine. The former Air-Force man wrestled at
Old Dominion and with the AF at the US Olympic Training Center. He also
holds a BJJ black belt under Lloyd Irvin. Kerry, Brandon’s wife
is also a strong kick boxer and was featured on Fight Girls alongside
Gina Carano, and Master Toddy. I think it helps having a wife that can
kick your ass if you don’t focus and train right, so Vera should
come into this ready for war.
He is also the first man to hold
a major PRIDE and UFC title. Couture never ceases to amaze as he has
pulled off some of the biggest upsets in the sport. He's the first man
to win a title in two different weight classes in the UFC, and he accomplished
most of his truly defining moments at 39 and up. I believe this will
be Randy's second three round match in over a decade, that in itself
is amazing. The things that these men have been able to do over the years
is truly amazing. It's almost kind of sad to see them have to fight because
there aren't many people out there who would like to see either lose.
Both are classy men and have been great ambassadors for the sport, but
at the same time, it would be a shame to never see them fight. This fight
would've happened years ago if Randy and the UFC didn't have their contractual
problems. I believe it would've been better then, but better later then
never. There's a lot of questions going into this fight for both men.
Nogueira probably had the worst performance of his career against Mir,
and was also finished for the first time in his career. There are many
questions if all the damage has caught up to him and if he can still
compete at this level. Randy didn't have a terrible performance against
Brock, but it also wasn't his best in my mind, and he's also 46...you
have to winder when his time will come. A lot of questions will be answered
when this event is done and over with. I hope we get to see the best
out of these two legends at the end of it, though.
